Today the AI build-out is racing ahead of demand — whether it pays is still contested.

This is a scenario model that takes inputs to describe the scenario under those conditions. Since the inputs are uncertain, the outcomes are uncertain. The intended use is to explore how inputs drive different outcomes. It reads the AI build-out’s demand-versus-supply balance — whether revenue grows into the capex before capital tires — and returns a distribution over eight scenarios. Today the read is a build-out race: powerful AI, scarce compute, capex investing ahead of demand. Turn the four dials — demand scope, overbuild, workforce absorption, and plateau timing — and scrub the year-end horizon to see how much the read depends on each. Out-years (2029–2032) are prior-dominated; the fans, not the points, carry the claim.