{ "figure": "scenario-pyramid", "title": "The AI Speedometer", "publisher": "deslop.media", "canonical_url": "https://deslop.media/aifutures/ai-speedometer/", "horizon_months": 24, "methodology_version": "4.0.3-asq4-shadow-pathA", "substrate": { "figures": 101, "questions": 33, "scenarios": 9, "scenarios_scored": 8 }, "read_scenario": { "modal": null, "modal_tie": null, "crowned": false, "separated": false, "headline": "contested", "note": "No scenario is crowned. This is the route-incidence read (routers over placers); it is a spread, not a forecast. Within THIS layer the engine-affirm read leads and the heaviest single route-incidence read is the build-out race, by router count, not because it wins. This is a different model than the force-composition distribution (see force_composition), which is composed from the section force-marginals; do not read the two layers as the same object.", "sigma_credited_mass": 0.1207, "residual_no_position": 0.8793, "residual_note": "Most experts who are in-domain commit to no single scenario; the instrument does not force a placement. This residual is method, not a finding.", "scenarios": [ { "id": "S5", "label": "Frontier Plateau", "route_incidence": 0.0519, "credited_mass": 0.0264, "routers": 4, "n_placed": 77, "coverage": 0.7624, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0.0204, 0.1261 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "S3", "label": "Capital Pullback", "route_incidence": 0.0519, "credited_mass": 0.0036, "routers": 4, "n_placed": 77, "coverage": 0.7624, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0.0204, 0.1261 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "S2", "label": "Monetization Gap", "route_incidence": 0.0519, "credited_mass": 0.0036, "routers": 4, "n_placed": 77, "coverage": 0.7624, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0.0204, 0.1261 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "GoodEnough", "label": "Good Enough", "route_incidence": 0, "credited_mass": 0, "routers": 0, "n_placed": 77, "coverage": 0.7624, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0, 0.0475 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "BR", "label": "Build-Out Race", "route_incidence": 0.1429, "credited_mass": 0.0762, "routers": 11, "n_placed": 77, "coverage": 0.7624, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0.0817, 0.238 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "S6", "label": "Political Override", "route_incidence": 0, "credited_mass": 0, "routers": 0, "n_placed": 86, "coverage": 0.8515, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0, 0.0428 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "S1", "label": "Clear Run", "route_incidence": 0.0449, "credited_mass": 0.0099, "routers": 4, "n_placed": 89, "coverage": 0.8812, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0.0176, 0.1099 ], "cleared_floor": true }, { "id": "S4", "label": "Labor Shock", "route_incidence": 0.0225, "credited_mass": 0.001, "routers": 2, "n_placed": 89, "coverage": 0.8812, "route_incidence_ci": [ 0.0062, 0.0783 ], "cleared_floor": true } ] }, "pace": { "position": 3.1536, "axis": [ 0, 7 ], "label": "steady", "center_of_mass_norm": 0.4505, "note": "Wedge-mass-weighted mean of the scenarios arrayed cold-to-hot on the pace axis (weight = route incidence). No verdict is read into it (Direction A)." }, "scope_note": "The AI Speedometer reads an AI-100 panel: 40 AI operators who build frontier models and 61 external voices who fund, analyze, and study them. Coverage is densest on capability and commercial questions and thinner on politics, labor, and regulation. Read every lever as what these experts have said, not what is true.", "units": "proportion-only; route_incidence is the wedge reach, credited_mass is the share of the full panel; counts (routers, n_placed) are raw.", "citations": { "note": "Per-expert evidence behind the placements. Each entry is the expert's byte-exact public statement (quote + dated source) AND deslop.media's stance classification of it (stance / stance_label) on a dated question. It is a reading of the expert's position, NOT a verdict on whether the statement is true, and NOT a forecast. Read every entry as what these experts have said, not what is true.", "classifier": "deslop.media", "stance_vocabulary": [ "Strong Hold", "Weak Hold", "Silent", "Weak Deny", "Strong Deny" ], "count": 730, "items": [ { "id": "cf-0", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "I don't think that GI is achievable, at least not in the next five to ten years. I don't see any of these models reasoning at the level of humans for now.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-1", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "I don't think that GI is achievable, at least not in the next five to ten years. I don't see any of these models reasoning at the level of humans for now.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-2", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "I don't think that GI is achievable, at least not in the next five to ten years. I don't see any of these models reasoning at the level of humans for now.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-3", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "I think that's just a losing proposition", "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/05/11/1137090/three-things-in-ai-to-watch-according-to-a-nobel-winning-economist/", "source_host": "technologyreview.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-4", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "I think people are reading too much into Stargate, because even before it was announced the planned investments in the AI sector were massive, and they are going to continue that way, which is all part of the hype.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-5", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "I think people are reading too much into Stargate, because even before it was announced the planned investments in the AI sector were massive, and they are going to continue that way, which is all part of the hype.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-6", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "While I don't know the answer to that right now, what I can say is that the industry itself is wasting a lot of money. It has put close to a trillion dollars into the hardware, without seeing any of the breakthroughs that people were hoping for.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-7", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "We have not seen the development of apps based on AI that have the same usability", "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/05/11/1137090/three-things-in-ai-to-watch-according-to-a-nobel-winning-economist/", "source_host": "technologyreview.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-8", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "I don't expect any occupation that we have today to have been eliminated in five or 10 years' time.", "source": "https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/dont-be-taken-by-the-hype-mit-economist-says-ai-likely-to-impact-just-5-of-jobs-485407-2025-07-20", "source_host": "businesstoday.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-20", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-9", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "What's more, the tasks that AI is set to replace are much more geographically and occupationally dispersed, so you won't have a specific group that gets decimated.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-10", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "What's more, the tasks that AI is set to replace are much more geographically and occupationally dispersed, so you won't have a specific group that gets decimated.", "source": "https://moneyweek.com/investments/tech-stocks/daron-acemoglu-nobel-laureate-ai-gains", "source_host": "moneyweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-11", "voice": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I don't think complementary uses of AI will miraculously appear by themselves unless the industry devotes significant energy and time to them", "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/02/25/1111207/a-nobel-laureate-on-the-economics-of-artificial-intelligence/", "source_host": "technologyreview.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-12", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started. Humanity is close to building digital superintelligence", "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity", "source_host": "blog.samaltman.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-13", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "We have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways", "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity", "source_host": "blog.samaltman.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-14", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "2025 has seen the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work; writing computer code will never be the same.", "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity", "source_host": "blog.samaltman.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-15", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "2025 has seen the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work; writing computer code will never be the same.", "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity", "source_host": "blog.samaltman.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-16", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.", "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections", "source_host": "blog.samaltman.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-17", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "AI can only fulfill its promise if we build the compute to power it.", "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/21/tech/openai-oracle-softbank-trump-ai-investment", "source_host": "cnn.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-18", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "I can't think of anything more important than energy chips and all the other infrastructure.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-sam-altman-testifies-at-us-senate-hearing-on-ai-competitiveness/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-19", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "well over 1 million GPUs", "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/sam-altman-teases-100-million-gpu-scale-for-openai-that-could-cost-usd3-trillion-chatgpt-maker-to-cross-well-over-1-million-by-end-of-year", "source_host": "tomshardware.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-20", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "looking at commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next eight years", "source": "https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1pz00u5ywx", "source_host": "calcalistech.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-21", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030.", "source": "https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1pz00u5ywx", "source_host": "calcalistech.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-22", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "the API grew faster for us this year than even ChatGPT", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-top-20-billion-annual-revenue-this-year.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-23", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030.", "source": "https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/h1pz00u5ywx", "source_host": "calcalistech.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-24", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "We have more than a million enterprise users, but we have absolutely rapid adoption of the API.", "source": "https://www.capitalaidaily.com/sam-altman-says-openai-enterprise-growth-outpaced-consumer-this-year-with-1000000-users/", "source_host": "capitalaidaily.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-25", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "I can easily imagine a world where 30 to 40% of the tasks that happen in the economy today get done by AI in the not very distant future", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/09/47905175/openais-altman-foresees-ai-replacing-40-of-work-tasks-soon", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-26", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "I'm delighted to be wrong about this, I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than has actually happened.", "source": "https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/openai-ceo-sam-altman-admits-misjudgment-ai-impact-jobs-1799064", "source_host": "ibtimes.co.uk", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-27", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "I'm delighted to be wrong about this, I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than has actually happened.", "source": "https://time.com/article/2026/05/26/sam-altman-ai-job-losses-openAI-/", "source_host": "time.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-28", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "There will be very hard parts like whole classes of jobs going away, but on the other hand the world will be getting so much richer so quickly that we'll be able to seriously entertain new policy ideas we never could before.", "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity", "source_host": "blog.samaltman.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-29", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "I think some policy is good. I think it is easy for it to go too far.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-sam-altman-testifies-at-us-senate-hearing-on-ai-competitiveness/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-30", "voice": "Sam Altman", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "I think that would be disastrous.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-sam-altman-testifies-at-us-senate-hearing-on-ai-competitiveness/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-08", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-31", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Broadly speaking, the exponential of the underlying technology has gone about as I expected it to go.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-32", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "We're seeing the same scaling in RL that we saw for pre-training.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-33", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code", "source": "https://www.educationnext.in/posts/ai-and-the-future-of-coding-insights-from-dario-amodei-on-a-rapidly-changing-landscape", "source_host": "educationnext.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-34", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We may get to the point in a year or two where the models can just do SWE end-to-end. That's a whole task.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-35", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Everyone's always looking for these hard blocks on what [AI] can do. They're nowhere to be seen.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/22/anthropic-ceo-claims-ai-models-hallucinate-less-than-humans", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-36", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "The amount of compute the industry is building this year is probably, call it, 10-15 gigawatts. It goes up by roughly 3x a year. So next year's 30-40 gigawatts. 2028 might be 100 gigawatts.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-37", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "We had planned for a world of 10x growth per year. In the first quarter of this year, if you were to annualize it, we saw 80x growth per year — in revenue and usage.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/had-planned-for-10x-growth-but-saw-80x-annualized-growth-this-quarter-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-38", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "In 2023, it was zero to $100 million. In 2024, it was $100 million to $1 billion. In 2025, it was $1 billion to $9-10 billion.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-39", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "We had planned for a world of 10x growth per year. In the first quarter of this year, if you were to annualize it, we saw 80x growth per year — in revenue and usage.", "source": "https://venturebeat.com/technology/anthropic-says-it-hit-a-30-billion-revenue-run-rate-after-crazy-80x-growth", "source_host": "venturebeat.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-40", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Broadly speaking, the exponential of the underlying technology has gone about as I expected it to go.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-41", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "AI may also act as a more general economic substitute for human cognitive abilities than previous technologies have", "source": "https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential", "source_host": "darioamodei.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-42", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming.", "source": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-ceo-warns-ai-could-152758674.html", "source_host": "yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-28", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-43", "voice": "Dario Amodei", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "If you automate 90% of the job, then everyone does the 10% of the job. And the 10% kind of expands to be 100%.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/05/dario-amodei-jevons-paradox-will-ai-wipe-out-white-collar-jobs/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-44", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Financing for the Abilene project includes $9.6B of debt from JPMorgan and $5B of equity from Crusoe and Blue Owl", "source": "https://sacra.com/c/crusoe/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-45", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "ARR hit $106M in June 2025, up 6.6x from $16M at the end of 2024", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/replit-at-106m-arr/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-46", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "OpenAI has committed to over $500B in disclosed cloud capacity across multiple providers.", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/openai/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-47", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "OpenAI hit $25B in annualized revenue in February 2026, up from $20B at the end of 2025.", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/openai/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-48", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Enterprise has become a meaningful share of the mix, representing more than 40% of revenue.", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/openai/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-49", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "OpenAI posted a 33% gross margin, constrained by inference costs that reached $8.4B in 2025.", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/openai/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-50", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "Ground zero from the shift in SaaS from per-seat pricing ($50-150/seat/month) to outcome-based pricing (~$0.99-$1.50/resolution)", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/ai-support-agents-vs-help-desk-saas/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-51", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Going from $1M ARR to $100M ARR in 12 months, Cursor is the fastest growing SaaS company of all time", "source": "https://sacra.com/research/cursor-at-100m-arr/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-52", "voice": "Jan-Erik Asplund", "role": "Sacra co-founder, private-markets research", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "In companies, such AI agents could cut down the need for junior administrative work or customer support roles, effectively shifting spending from human labor to AI services.", "source": "https://sacra.com/c/openai/", "source_host": "sacra.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-53", "voice": "David Autor", "role": "academic labor economist", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "And I think automation, not only is it overrated, it's also over-promised. It doesn't usually happen nearly as fast as the people designing the tools think that it will.", "source": "https://issues.org/david-autor-economist-ai-future-work/", "source_host": "issues.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-54", "voice": "David Autor", "role": "academic labor economist", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "The unique opportunity that AI offers to the labor market is to extend the relevance, reach, and value of human expertise.", "source": "https://cepr.org/multimedia/expertise-ai-and-work-future-keynote-lecture-david-autor", "source_host": "cepr.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-55", "voice": "David Autor", "role": "academic labor economist", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "But even more fundamentally, let's say a million jobs are destroyed, and a million are created. The people who are taking the new work are not usually the people displaced from the old work.", "source": "https://issues.org/david-autor-economist-ai-future-work/", "source_host": "issues.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-56", "voice": "David Autor", "role": "academic labor economist", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "The concern is not about us running out of jobs per se. In fact, we're running out of workers.", "source": "https://issues.org/david-autor-economist-ai-future-work/", "source_host": "issues.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-57", "voice": "Dean W. Ball", "role": "Dean W. Ball", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "Today no gigawatt-scale data centers exist; by the end of 2026 American companies will control nearly half a dozen such facilities (in addition to multi-hundred-megawatt facilities coming online throughout the year as well).", "source": "https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/dice-in-the-air", "source_host": "hyperdimensional.co", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-58", "voice": "Dean W. Ball", "role": "Dean W. Ball", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "I do not currently expect California to pass any new frontier AI legislation in the coming year, but they are very likely to pass kids safety and other consumer protection laws that will affect frontier AI systems nonetheless.", "source": "https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/dice-in-the-air", "source_host": "hyperdimensional.co", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-59", "voice": "Dean W. Ball", "role": "Dean W. Ball", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "I do not currently expect California to pass any new frontier AI legislation in the coming year, but they are very likely to pass kids safety and other consumer protection laws that will affect frontier AI systems nonetheless.", "source": "https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/dice-in-the-air", "source_host": "hyperdimensional.co", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-60", "voice": "Lori Beer", "role": "enterprise cio financial services buyer", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "AI agents, Beer says, will change the way one thinks about work, the tasks to complete that work, how to break those tasks down, the tasks the bank is comfortable automating, the tasks that require human reflection, and then the proper technology ecosystem with the proper security, resiliency, and controls.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/capcom-virgin-voyages-bet-on-ai-to-reshape-gaming-and-cruise-travel/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-61", "voice": "Lori Beer", "role": "enterprise cio financial services buyer", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We have been focusing very early on, on simple things, like what's the right level to create an agent; how do you give them identity and access?", "source": "https://fintechmagazine.com/tech-ai/lori-beer-jpmorgan-chase-co-leading-tech-innovation", "source_host": "fintechmagazine.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-62", "voice": "Lori Beer", "role": "enterprise cio financial services buyer", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The investments we're making in tech are creating real value for the firm.", "source": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/chases-lori-beer-is-8-on-the-most-innovative-people-in-finance-ranking", "source_host": "americanbanker.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-63", "voice": "Lori Beer", "role": "enterprise cio financial services buyer", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Success is transforming and creating value with AI, not just incremental steps.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-credits-ai-coding-assistant-161026020.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-64", "voice": "Lori Beer", "role": "enterprise cio financial services buyer", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "We've grown fast, but now we're optimizing what we've got.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-credits-ai-coding-assistant-161026020.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-65", "voice": "Lori Beer", "role": "enterprise cio financial services buyer", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Success is transforming and creating value with AI, not just incremental steps.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-credits-ai-coding-assistant-161026020.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-66", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We now have over 9,500 paid Agentforce deals and 3.2 trillion tokens processed, underscoring our leadership in building the Agentic Enterprise and driving real outcomes.", "source": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/", "source_host": "salesforce.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-67", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "AI is doing 30% to 50% of the work at Salesforce", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/26/ai-salesforce-benioff.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-68", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Our Agentforce and Data 360 products are the momentum drivers, hitting nearly $1.4 billion in ARR—an explosive 114% year-over-year gain.", "source": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/", "source_host": "salesforce.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-69", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "We now have over 9,500 paid Agentforce deals and 3.2 trillion tokens processed, underscoring our leadership in building the Agentic Enterprise and driving real outcomes.", "source": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/", "source_host": "salesforce.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-70", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Agentforce accounts in production grew 70% quarter over quarter", "source": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/", "source_host": "salesforce.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-71", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "This looks like it's anywhere from a few trillion to 12 trillion", "source": "https://www.fool.com/data-news/2025/03/14/benioff-digital-labor-creating-12t-opportunity/", "source_host": "fool.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-03-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-72", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Our Agentforce and Data 360 products are the momentum drivers, hitting nearly $1.4 billion in ARR—an explosive 114% year-over-year gain.", "source": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2025/12/03/fy26-q3-earnings/", "source_host": "salesforce.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-73", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "much bigger than software", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43999577/salesforce-aims-beyond-crm-bets-big-on-digital-labor-revolution-as-ceo-predicts-up-to-12-trillion-market", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-74", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "it's not going to be some huge mass layoff of white-collar workers, it is a radical augmentation of the workforce", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marc-benioff-says-narrative-ai-094301141.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-75", "voice": "Marc Benioff", "role": "saas economics enterprise incumbent", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "it's not going to be some huge mass layoff of white-collar workers, it is a radical augmentation of the workforce", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marc-benioff-says-narrative-ai-094301141.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-76", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Looking backwards, we have been tripling our compute every single year for the past couple years, and we've also tripled our revenue.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/gdp-growth-will-be-driven-by-amount-of-compute-available-for-a-country-openai-president-greg-brockman/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-77", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "we have line of sight to much better models coming this year", "source": "https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling", "source_host": "bigtechnology.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-78", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "he gives it a design doc, it actually implements it, adds metrics, observability, runs the profiler, improves it", "source": "https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling", "source_host": "bigtechnology.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-79", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "you become this CEO of a fleet of hundreds of thousands of agents that are completing your objectives", "source": "https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling", "source_host": "bigtechnology.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-80", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Certainly within a year, sometimes much sooner, it's going to be incredibly reliable", "source": "https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling", "source_host": "bigtechnology.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-81", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Stargate is a step towards meeting the demand of the compute-powered economy", "source": "https://x.com/gdb/status/2045279841482928271", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-82", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "we are not even going to have enough compute to fund those two things", "source": "https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling", "source_host": "bigtechnology.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-83", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "OpenAI to Spend $50 Billion on Computing in 2026, Brockman Says", "source": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/openai-to-spend-50-billion-on-computing-in-2026-brockman-says", "source_host": "bloomberg.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-84", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "we have been tripling our compute every single year for the past couple years, and we've also tripled our revenue.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/gdp-growth-will-be-driven-by-amount-of-compute-available-for-a-country-openai-president-greg-brockman/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-85", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "we have been tripling our compute every single year for the past couple years, and we've also tripled our revenue.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/gdp-growth-will-be-driven-by-amount-of-compute-available-for-a-country-openai-president-greg-brockman/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-86", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "we are not even going to have enough compute to fund those two things", "source": "https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/openai-president-greg-brockman-doubling", "source_host": "bigtechnology.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-87", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "intent can now be converted directly into software, spreadsheets, presentations, workflows, science and companies", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/04/51824967/openais-greg-brockman-envisions-compute-powered-economy-as-ai-transforms-work-entrepreneurship", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-88", "voice": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI president and co-founder", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "intent can now be converted directly into software, spreadsheets, presentations, workflows, science and companies", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/04/51824967/openais-greg-brockman-envisions-compute-powered-economy-as-ai-transforms-work-entrepreneurship", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-89", "voice": "Noam Brown", "role": "inference time compute researcher", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Less than 1 year ago frontier AI models were at IMO gold-level performance. I expect this pace of progress to continue.", "source": "https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2057177432717656539", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-90", "voice": "Noam Brown", "role": "inference time compute researcher", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Less than 1 year ago frontier AI models were at IMO gold-level performance. I expect this pace of progress to continue.", "source": "https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2057177432717656539", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-91", "voice": "Noam Brown", "role": "inference time compute researcher", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "We developed new techniques that make LLMs a lot better at hard-to-verify tasks. IMO problems were the perfect challenge for this: proofs are pages long and take experts hours to grade.", "source": "https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1946478249187377206", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-92", "voice": "Noam Brown", "role": "inference time compute researcher", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "I would say basically anything that I would normally try to code up, I try to do it with Codex first.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/noam-brown", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-06-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-93", "voice": "Noam Brown", "role": "inference time compute researcher", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "I think that O3 is not where the technology will be in six months.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/noam-brown", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-06-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-94", "voice": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Recent discussion coincides with rapid improvements in AI capabilities and adoption. From 2023 to 2024, AI systems improved from solving 4.4% of coding problems to 71.7% on SWE-Bench, a widely used benchmark for software engineering", "source": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf", "source_host": "digitaleconomy.stanford.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-95", "voice": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "AI has also improved in areas like language understanding, subject knowledge, and reasoning. A recent paper found that current systems could match or outperform up to 47 percent of industry professionals on a pre-defined benchmark of economically valuable tasks", "source": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf", "source_host": "digitaleconomy.stanford.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-96", "voice": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "AI has also improved in areas like language understanding, subject knowledge, and reasoning. A recent paper found that current systems could match or outperform up to 47 percent of industry professionals on a pre-defined benchmark of economically valuable tasks", "source": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf", "source_host": "digitaleconomy.stanford.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-97", "voice": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "a small cohort of power users", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/15/ai-productivity-liftoff-doubling-2025-jobs-report-transition-harvest-phase-j-curve/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-98", "voice": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Early-career workers (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations experienced 16% relative employment declines, controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for experienced workers remained stable.", "source": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf", "source_host": "digitaleconomy.stanford.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-99", "voice": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "labor economist", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "Our second key fact is that overall employment continues to grow robustly, but employment growth for young workers has been stagnant since late 2022.", "source": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/11/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf", "source_host": "digitaleconomy.stanford.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-100", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "2026 will either be the year where a lot of this new capacity comes online...or it will be the year when many of these construction projects begin to face delays.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-101", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "The concept of GW is being used to reflect that power is the new constraint on data centers, rather than money.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/circular-deals-and-supply-chain-dynamics", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-102", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-103", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Labs are taking all their profits and capital and plowing them right back into new data centers.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-capex-now-hinges-on-deus-ex-machina", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-104", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The area where I do not expect to see any delays is in AI adoption itself. The fading of hype will have little impact on fundamentals.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-105", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "ChatGPT has continued its epic rise to north of $12B in run-rate revenue, Anthropic has reached $5B+ in run-rate revenue in a meteoric rise, and there's a new club of companies scaling quickly from $0 to $100M in revenue.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-capex-now-hinges-on-deus-ex-machina", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-106", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Big enterprises are struggling to implement AI in-house, which is leading to fatigue and disappointment.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-107", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "AI app companies are also riding a compute cost curve that should drive incremental margin improvement, especially as new data centers come online between now and 2030.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-108", "voice": "David Cahn", "role": "Sequoia Capital partner", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "If anything, the best startups are growing faster than ever from $0 to $100M in revenue.", "source": "https://dcahn.substack.com/p/ai-in-2026-a-tale-of-two-ais", "source_host": "dcahn.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-109", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Examples of improved capabilities are everywhere, including the first chart below combining performance scores across 10 different benchmarks.", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-110", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Look how rapidly most models improved in 2025 in solving real world GitHub issues, particularly Google’s", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-111", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "OpenAI’s o3 achieved a rating better than 99% of human competitors in Codeforces coding competitions", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-112", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "the share of incorrect responses out of all questions asked; some of these hallucination rates are shockingly high", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-113", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "This year looks to be another version of 2025: a 10%-15% correction at some point due to profit-taking and a growth scare, but then equity markets end the year higher than where they began.", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-114", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "Given combined cycle turbine delays, grid interconnection bottlenecks, wildly overly optimistic timetables for small modular reactors and nuclear fusion and limited opportunities to recommission shuttered but still viable nuclear fission plants, energy may be a significant constraint on AI", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-115", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "The market cap of four hyperscalers and the semiconductor ecosystem companies they rely on has grown from $3 trillion to $18 trillion in just a few years", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-116", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Even after accounting for the Q4 surge in AI-related debt, many AI companies have net debt to cash flow ratios less than zero since cash and securities exceed total debt", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-117", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Will all this investment eventually result in commensurate profits? If not, moat companies could face a version of the Metaverse reckoning that took place in 2022 when the Mag7 stocks fell in half.", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-118", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "Microsoft’s inference business: fastest line in the business history to reach a US$10 bn revenue run rate, with growth constrained by a lack of available compute capacity", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-119", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Despite $30-$40 bn in enterprise investment in genAI, 95% of organizations are getting zero return", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-120", "voice": "Michael Cembalest", "role": "J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategy chairman", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "But at a market-wide level, so far only the AI infrastructure providers have generated substantial excess returns. Baskets of companies presumed to benefit from selling AI products and/or lower labor costs have been flat to the equal weighted S&P 500.", "source": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf", "source_host": "am.jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-121", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-122", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "at some point the models got good enough, and that's when we moved from scaffolds to harnesses", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-123", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "You throw hard problems at these things and you get long-horizon agents", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-124", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-125", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "They aren't reliable to nine nines of reliability, but they can do a ton of work", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-126", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-127", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-128", "voice": "Harrison Chase", "role": "agent infrastructure", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "The killer application of long-horizon agents right now is places where you have this 'first draft' type of concept", "source": "https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/ai-video/2026/context-engineering-is-the-new-ai-moat-langchains-harrison-chase-on-long-horizon-agents", "source_host": "startuphub.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-129", "voice": "Neil Chilson", "role": "Neil Chilson", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "My prediction is that data center build out is gonna merge with environmental issues and local construction issues, and that's gonna dominate local, like when people think about AI fights in 2026, a big chunk of it is gonna be about stuff that is not really about AI. It's about construction and energy production.", "source": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--a-year-that-felt-like-a-decade--2025-recap-with-sen.-maroney---neil-chilson", "source_host": "lawfaremedia.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-130", "voice": "Neil Chilson", "role": "Neil Chilson", "question": "Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?", "quote": "I think that for the biggest of the companies that Google is competing with in the AI space, these remedies won't be a big value add.", "source": "https://www.npr.org/2025/09/02/nx-s1-5478625/google-chrome-doj-antitrust-ruling", "source_host": "npr.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-02", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-131", "voice": "François Chollet", "role": "Keras creator, AI researcher", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The Grand Prize remains unclaimed, but nevertheless 2025 saw remarkable progress on LLM-driven refinement loops, both with \"local\" models and with commercial frontier models.", "source": "https://x.com/fchollet/status/1997011262723801106", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-132", "voice": "François Chollet", "role": "Keras creator, AI researcher", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "While the Grand Prize remains unclaimed, we're excited to announce the ARC Prize 2025 Score and Paper winners.", "source": "https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025-results-analysis", "source_host": "arcprize.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-133", "voice": "François Chollet", "role": "Keras creator, AI researcher", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "We verified a Gemini 3 Pro refinement harness implementation open-sourced by Poetiq, which improves performance on ARC-AGI-2 from a baseline of 31% accuracy at $0.81 per task to 54% accuracy at $31 per task.", "source": "https://arxiv.org/html/2601.10904v1", "source_host": "arxiv.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-134", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "There are agents today that are terrific. There are models today that are terrific. But in many cases, the data isn't ready to be agented yet. So we're putting agents on top of data that isn't ready to be agented. And that's creating another economic challenge for companies.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-05", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-135", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "But instead of cutting the capex, they've actually raised the capex.", "source": "https://www.tradersmagazine.com/featured_articles/ai-economics-deteriorating-as-spending-rises-without-clear-returns/", "source_host": "tradersmagazine.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-136", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "In every cycle, the semiconductor stocks thrive when their customers thrive. Here in this cycle, the semiconductor companies are thriving at the economic expense of everybody above them", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-137", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "FOMO has proven a stronger incentive than poor stock performance as hyperscalers have prioritized being involved in the AI arms race over their current shareholders", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/06/is-ai-a-bubble-goldman-sachs-skeptics-overhyped/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-138", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "You make investments in a business so that you can generate returns and make money. And we've gotten further away from that over the last couple years instead of closer to it.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-05", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-139", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "In a lot of ways, companies are losing more money today implementing this technology than they were two years ago", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-05", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-140", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Something has to change with this dynamic, either the companies higher in the chain need to start earning a return on investment or they will eventually need to spend less on the chips that are powering this build", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/06/is-ai-a-bubble-goldman-sachs-skeptics-overhyped/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-06", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-141", "voice": "Jim Covello", "role": "Goldman Sachs head of global equity research", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "I really think it all boils down to one thing: do the enterprises make or save money implementing AI? If they do, this technology is going to fulfill its promise.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/is-ai-a-bubble-worth-it-short-term-early-goldman-skeptic-covello-profits/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-05", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-142", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "In February last year, Claude Code could write a quarter of my code. In February this year, the latest Opus model can write nine tenths of my code.", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-143", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "In February last year, Claude Code could write a quarter of my code. In February this year, the latest Opus model can write nine tenths of my code.", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-144", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "I implemented that entire Stripe product (as it relates to me) by typing three sentences. It solves my problem better than their product.", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-145", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The LLMs of 2023 could not drive agents, the LLMs of 2025 are optimized for it", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/programming-with-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-146", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "I see them fail catastrophically several times a week.", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-08", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-147", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "In 1900, 33% of Americans lived on a farm, and 40% worked in agriculture. In 2000, less than one percent lived on farms and 1% of workers are in agriculture. That was a net benefit to the world, that we all don't have to work to eat.", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-148", "voice": "David Crawshaw", "role": "distributed systems infrastructure engineer", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I am having more fun programming than I ever have, because so many more of the programs I wish I could find the time to write actually exist.", "source": "https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents", "source_host": "crawshaw.io", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-149", "voice": "Aswath Damodaran", "role": "valuation", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "In the aggregate, LLM ownership is being priced at $1.5 trillion or more, and the collective revenues, even generously defined, are less than $100 billion.", "source": "https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/12/trillion-dollar-market-caps-fairy-tale.html", "source_host": "aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-150", "voice": "Aswath Damodaran", "role": "valuation", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "OpenAI, while still unlisted, has used the early lead that ChatGPT gave it in the LLM race to attract investments from a host of big tech companies (including Nvidia and Amazon) and venture capitalists, with the most recent investors pricing it at $500 billion, an astonishing number, given that the company reported revenues of only $13 billion in the most recent twelve months.", "source": "https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/12/trillion-dollar-market-caps-fairy-tale.html", "source_host": "aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-151", "voice": "Aswath Damodaran", "role": "valuation", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "I think AI is going to lower profit margins collectively across companies", "source": "https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/p/full-transcript-aswath-damodaran", "source_host": "excessreturnspod.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-17", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-152", "voice": "Aswath Damodaran", "role": "valuation", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "the potential market can run from the tens of billions (if they remain subscription-based) to hundreds of billions or even trillions", "source": "https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/04/to-trillion-dollars-and-beyond-spacex.html", "source_host": "aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-23", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-153", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "the models are getting substantially better generation over generation. I don't see that slowing down in the next few generations probably.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jeff-dean-and-noam-shazeer", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-154", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "we are making pretty significant progress", "source": "https://thelogic.co/news/jeff-dean-google-ai-sovereignty-talent-wars-interview/", "source_host": "thelogic.co", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-155", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "AI is not just about answering you but has the ability to take action.", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3567742079768711", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-156", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Not that far. I will claim that's probably possible in the next year-ish.", "source": "https://www.sequoiacap.com/podcast/training-data-jeff-dean/", "source_host": "sequoiacap.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-157", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "the model has a reasonably clear view of that data, but it sometimes gets confused and will give the wrong date for something.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jeff-dean-and-noam-shazeer", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-158", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "we're definitely investing in this area because we think it's important.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jeff-dean-and-noam-shazeer", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-159", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "Accelerators for reduced precision linear algebra are what you want, and you want them to be better and better generation over generation", "source": "https://sequoiacap.com/podcast/training-data-jeff-dean/", "source_host": "sequoiacap.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-160", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Having a good model is not enough; it must be affordable.", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3567742079768711", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-161", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "If we create AI coding tools that can make people three times as productive, we'll mostly take that three times productivity and put it to writing three times as much software for different things than we will to making 1/3 as many people spend their time on software.", "source": "https://dataconomy.com/2025/09/08/jeff-dean-explains-ais-impact-on-jobs-and-innovation-at-singapore/", "source_host": "dataconomy.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-09-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-162", "voice": "Jeff Dean", "role": "frontier lab principal", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "If we create AI coding tools that can make people three times as productive, we'll mostly take that three times productivity and put it to writing three times as much software for different things than we will to making 1/3 as many people spend their time on software.", "source": "https://dataconomy.com/2025/09/08/jeff-dean-explains-ais-impact-on-jobs-and-innovation-at-singapore/", "source_host": "dataconomy.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-09-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-163", "voice": "David Deming", "role": "David Deming", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Over the last century, disruptive innovation has generally favored the young and the well-educated, because they can adapt to new ways of doing things. AI could be different, but I doubt it.", "source": "https://forklightning.substack.com/p/shorting-the-ai-jobs-apocalypse", "source_host": "forklightning.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-164", "voice": "David Deming", "role": "David Deming", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "If you smashed all the lines together, you'd see that software developer jobs have continued to grow overall through the release of ChatGPT.", "source": "https://forklightning.substack.com/p/shorting-the-ai-jobs-apocalypse", "source_host": "forklightning.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-165", "voice": "David Deming", "role": "David Deming", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "In short, I think AI's going to be a great teammate because it can smooth out our rough edges, allowing each of us to specialize in what we do best.", "source": "https://forklightning.substack.com/p/ai-human-teams-and-the-future-of", "source_host": "forklightning.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-166", "voice": "Scott Devitt", "role": "Scott Devitt", "question": "Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?", "quote": "The outcome is broadly favorable for Google, in our view, with the court ruling against the most severe remedy proposals introduced by the DOJ.", "source": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-calling-googles-antitrust-decision-054718628.html", "source_host": "ca.finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-167", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "AI will affect virtually every function, application, and process in the company.", "source": "https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters", "source_host": "jpmorganchase.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-168", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "The pace of adoption will likely be far faster than prior technological transformations, like electricity or the internet.", "source": "https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters", "source_host": "jpmorganchase.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-169", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that AI will cure some cancers, create new composites and reduce accidental deaths, among other positive outcomes.", "source": "https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters", "source_host": "jpmorganchase.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-170", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Some of those projects won't get done the way they were announced. Some of them won't get the power they need.", "source": "https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters", "source_host": "jpmorganchase.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-171", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "Some of those projects won't get done the way they were announced. Some of them won't get the power they need.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/jamie-dimon-says-ai-isnt-135040924.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-15", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-172", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "at this time, we cannot predict the ultimate winners and losers in AI-related industries", "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/07/dimon-says-ai-capital-spending-will-hit-725-billio/", "source_host": "fool.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-173", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Though some of these things may be in a bubble, in total, it'll probably pay off.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/jamie-dimon-says-ai-isnt-135040924.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-174", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "AI will affect virtually every function, application, and process in the company.", "source": "https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters", "source_host": "jpmorganchase.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-175", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "at this time, we cannot predict the ultimate winners and losers in AI-related industries", "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/07/dimon-says-ai-capital-spending-will-hit-725-billio/", "source_host": "fool.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-06", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-176", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "You can't lay off 2 million truckers tomorrow. If you do, you will have civil unrest.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-government-power-234509176.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-177", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "the developed world will be working three and a half days a week in 20, 30, 40 years, and have wonderful lives.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/11/06/jamie-dimon-ai-will-shorten-work-week-three-and-a-half-days/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-178", "voice": "Jamie Dimon", "role": "large bank deployment", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "We would agree, if we have to do that to save society.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-government-power-234509176.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-179", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "As models and chips commoditize, the value of AI moves up the stack to orchestration and intelligence.", "source": "https://www.uipath.com/newsroom/uipath-launches-first-enterprise-grade-platform-for-agentic-automation", "source_host": "uipath.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-180", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Now, anyone can describe what they want, direct a coding agent to produce it, and carry through every stage to production.", "source": "https://www.techzine.eu/blogs/applications/141368/uipath-ceo-agentic-ai-shifts-the-definition-of-a-software-builder/", "source_host": "techzine.eu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-181", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "When you connect AI agents, robots, people, and systems through Maestro, you move from pilots to production", "source": "https://www.uipath.com/blog/product-and-updates/agentic-ai-meets-roi-fusion-2025-defining-moment", "source_host": "uipath.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-182", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Enterprises are accelerating their AI and automation strategies, and they're looking for a unified platform rather than standalone tools.", "source": "https://ir.uipath.com/news/detail/420/uipath-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-2026-financial-results", "source_host": "ir.uipath.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-183", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Since launching Agent Builder in preview this January, we've seen accelerating adoption with customers creating thousands of autonomous agents and generating over 250,000 agent runs today.", "source": "https://diginomica.com/uipath-ceo-daniel-dines-five-fold-right-win-powers-q1-solid-start-fiscal-26-year", "source_host": "diginomica.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-184", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "As models and chips commoditize, the value of AI moves up the stack to orchestration and intelligence.", "source": "https://www.uipath.com/newsroom/uipath-launches-first-enterprise-grade-platform-for-agentic-automation", "source_host": "uipath.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-185", "voice": "Daniel Dines", "role": "RPA and automation", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Maestro is one of the most important and successful product introductions in our history.", "source": "https://diginomica.com/uipath-ceo-daniel-dines-five-fold-right-win-powers-q1-solid-start-fiscal-26-year", "source_host": "diginomica.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-186", "voice": "Joe Dominguez", "role": "power grid operator strategist", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "I just have to tell you, folks, I think the load is being overstated. We need to pump the brakes here.", "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342", "source_host": "investing.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-187", "voice": "Joe Dominguez", "role": "power grid operator strategist", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "Nuclear simply wins the match in every single dimension.", "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342", "source_host": "investing.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-188", "voice": "Joe Dominguez", "role": "power grid operator strategist", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "What other resource could offer a twenty year fixed price?", "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342", "source_host": "investing.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-189", "voice": "Joe Dominguez", "role": "power grid operator strategist", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The business updates from the tech companies are telling us that Americans are putting AI technology to work.", "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-constellation-energy-q1-2025-reveals-robust-growth-93CH-4025342", "source_host": "investing.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-190", "voice": "Joe Dominguez", "role": "power grid operator strategist", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "If NIMBYism becomes the reason we lose the AI race, for whatever reason, we're in a whole lot of trouble.", "source": "https://www.semafor.com/article/04/14/2026/constellation-energy-ceo-joe-dominguez-says-us-not-going-to-win-the-race-with-china-ai-energy-buildout", "source_host": "semafor.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-04-14", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-191", "voice": "Joe Dominguez", "role": "power grid operator strategist", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "Some customers have been willing to continue advancing project discussions and agreement negotiations while others have chosen to pause and wait for regulatory clarity.", "source": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/constellation-energy-crane-pjm-ercot-earnings/819939/", "source_host": "utilitydive.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-192", "voice": "Teddy Downey", "role": "Teddy Downey", "question": "Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?", "quote": "U.S. District Judge Leonie M. Brinkema will break up Google's (GOOG) ad tech monopoly.", "source": "https://thecapitolforum.com/capitol-forums-tech-policy-2026-predictions/", "source_host": "thecapitolforum.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-193", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "we don't know if the error rate will go away, and so we don't know whether we should be building products that presume the model will sometimes be wrong or whether in a year or two we will be building products that presume we can rely on the model by itself.", "source": "https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2025/1/the-problem-with-better-models", "source_host": "ben-evans.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-22", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-194", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "the big four platform companies will have spent around $400bn this year and are far behind demand.", "source": "https://publicservicesalliance.org/2025/12/21/benedict-evans-2025-year-end-column/", "source_host": "publicservicesalliance.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-195", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "the big four platform companies will have spent around $400bn this year and are far behind demand.", "source": "https://publicservicesalliance.org/2025/12/21/benedict-evans-2025-year-end-column/", "source_host": "publicservicesalliance.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-196", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The models have a very large user base, but very narrow engagement and stickiness, and no network effect or any other winner-takes-all effect so far that provides a clear path to turning that user base into something broader and durable.", "source": "https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/2/19/how-will-openai-compete-nkg2x", "source_host": "ben-evans.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-197", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Only 5% of ChatGPT users are paying, and even US teens are much more likely to use this a few times a week or less than they are to use it multiple time a day.", "source": "https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/2/19/how-will-openai-compete-nkg2x", "source_host": "ben-evans.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-198", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Something between 5% and 15% of people are finding a use for this every day", "source": "https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2025/5/25/genais-adoption-puzzle", "source_host": "ben-evans.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-199", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "When you have an undifferentiated product, early leads in adoption tend not to be durable, and competition tends to shift to brand and distribution.", "source": "https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/2/19/how-will-openai-compete-nkg2x", "source_host": "ben-evans.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-200", "voice": "Benedict Evans", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "'Exposure to automation' might mean more work, not less.", "source": "https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/5/24/ai-job-exposure", "source_host": "ben-evans.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-201", "voice": "Kevin Frazier", "role": "Kevin Frazier", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "2026 will see a flood of state AI bills that creates a regulatory tower of babble—laws with different definitions, standards, and mandates.", "source": "https://natlawreview.com/article/85-predictions-ai-and-law-2026", "source_host": "natlawreview.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-202", "voice": "Carl Benedikt Frey", "role": "Carl Benedikt Frey", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "So unless we solve that, I don't think it's going to have an impact that will mean that labor force participation is going to be significantly lower 10 years from now.", "source": "https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/why-progress-stops-my-chat-transcript", "source_host": "fasterplease.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-203", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "It's getting harder and harder to get value out of the next pre-trained giant model", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/databricks-ceo-says-agi-already-054525682.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-204", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Over 80% of the databases that are being launched on Databricks are not being launched by humans, but by AI agents", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-205", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "We all become supervisors", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/databricks-ceo-says-agi-already-054525682.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-206", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "I see a huge bubble in many, many portions of the market", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/24/databricks-ceo-ali-ghodsi-bubble-insane-zero-revenue-ai-circular/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-207", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "I think like 12 months from now, it'll be much, much, much worse", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/24/databricks-ceo-ali-ghodsi-bubble-insane-zero-revenue-ai-circular/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-208", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "It's very elusive to get AI that really works and understands that proprietary data that's inside enterprise", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-209", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "really, really excited to get agents actually working inside the enterprise", "source": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/talks-at-gs/ai-and-the-enterprise-revolution-databricks-ceo-ali-ghodsi", "source_host": "goldmansachs.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-210", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "It's a commodity now to have AI that has general knowledge", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-211", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "That's just a huge growth factor for us. I think if we just did that, we could maybe get all the way to a trillion", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/09/databticks-ceo-1-trillion-valuation-agents-brainstorm-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-212", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "people underestimate how hard it is to completely automate a task", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ceo-62b-data-ai-company-000512267.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-213", "voice": "Ali Ghodsi", "role": "data platform", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I think in a few years, yes, we'll have agents in many, many places, but there will be a human overseeing and approving every step", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ceo-62b-data-ai-company-000512267.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-214", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Spending an incremental $10 billion a year to improve your model does not deliver the return on investment on the technology itself to justify that … over the past few years, since there's been all of this scaling, we're seeing a slowdown in the improvement of the models.", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/", "source_host": "tradingview.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-215", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "over the past few years, since there's been all of this scaling, we're seeing a slowdown in the improvement of the models.", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/", "source_host": "tradingview.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-216", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "But now we're seeing [AI] is getting rolled out across every single company.", "source": "https://sifted.eu/articles/aidan-gomez-cohere-interview", "source_host": "sifted.eu", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-09-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-217", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "People are used to working with systems that are half blind, or have an arm tied behind their back.", "source": "https://www.upstartsmedia.com/p/cohere-ceo-exclusive-north-agents", "source_host": "upstartsmedia.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-218", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Spending an incremental $10 billion a year to improve your model does not deliver the return on investment on the technology itself to justify that", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/", "source_host": "tradingview.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-219", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "We feel [we are] in a very good position to build a sustainable, profit-generating business.", "source": "https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/", "source_host": "betakit.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-220", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "We have a differentiated deployment model, we have very high margins similar to a traditional [software-as-a-service] business, whereas many others in the industry are losing money per customer.", "source": "https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/", "source_host": "betakit.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-221", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "But now we're seeing [AI] is getting rolled out across every single company.", "source": "https://sifted.eu/articles/aidan-gomez-cohere-interview", "source_host": "sifted.eu", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-09-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-222", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "we have very high margins similar to a traditional [software-as-a-service] business, whereas many others in the industry are losing money per customer.", "source": "https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/", "source_host": "betakit.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-223", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "we have very high margins similar to a traditional [software-as-a-service] business", "source": "https://betakit.com/aidan-gomez-says-cohere-could-ipo-soon-as-company-holds-secondary-sale/", "source_host": "betakit.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-224", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "I personally don't believe a lot of these stories of 'Terminators' and doomsdays and these sort of sci-fi narratives that emerged.", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/", "source_host": "tradingview.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-225", "voice": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "The thing that actually matters is who is the primary service provider of this technology – it's not who gets the technology first, but who commercializes it at scale.", "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3XA1KE:0-ai-startup-cohere-ceo-says-us-holds-edge-over-china-in-ai-race/", "source_host": "tradingview.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-226", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "profoundly more powerful", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-227", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "step change", "source": "https://vinnews.com/2026/05/16/citadel-ceo-ken-griffin-says-ai-agents-now-automating-high-skilled-finance-jobs/", "source_host": "vinnews.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-228", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "To be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with master's and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-229", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "work that we would usually do with people with master's and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-230", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Is it hype? Of course", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/citadels-ceo-ai-boom-hype-135646520.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-231", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "You're not going to generate this kind of spend unless you're going to make a promise you're going to profoundly change the world", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/citadels-ceo-ai-boom-hype-135646520.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-232", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "How else are you going to get people to write $500 billion of checks just this year alone?", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/citadels-ceo-ai-boom-hype-135646520.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-233", "voice": "Ken Griffin", "role": "hedge fund deployment", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "You could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/billionaire-ken-griffin-ai-garbage-depressed-dramatic-impact-society/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-234", "voice": "Albert Gu", "role": "sequence modeling architecture researcher", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Our new architecture, which enables hierarchical *dynamic chunking*, is not only tokenizer-free, but simply scales better.", "source": "https://x.com/_albertgu/status/1943704103059664966", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-235", "voice": "Albert Gu", "role": "sequence modeling architecture researcher", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "an H-Net with one stage of hierarchy operating at the byte level outperforms a strong Transformer language model operating over BPE tokens.", "source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07955", "source_host": "arxiv.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-236", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "There's a real technology wave that's fundamentally changing the world, and there's also massive speculation, simultaneous.", "source": "https://tim.blog/2025/12/17/bill-gurley-running-down-a-dream/", "source_host": "tim.blog", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-237", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "I can't imagine someone saying, like, replacing SAP with, you know, just telling AI, oh, well, we'll just dump our transactions into AI... I don't think the auditors would be okay with it.", "source": "https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job", "source_host": "podcasts.happyscribe.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-238", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "One day, I just think we trip and run out of money on those things. I do think that moment stands in front of us.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-bill-gurley-ai-bubble-172307387.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-239", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "One day we're going to have an AI reset, because waves create bubbles, because interlopers come in.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-bill-gurley-ai-bubble-172307387.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-240", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "There was no cash flow. So it's cash flowless revenue for Microsoft. And that should be questionable. It's certainly low revenue quality.", "source": "https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job", "source_host": "podcasts.happyscribe.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-241", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "You're using your balance sheet to prop up your revenue... you have revenue without incremental cash flow.", "source": "https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job", "source_host": "podcasts.happyscribe.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-242", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "I can't imagine someone saying, like, replacing SAP with, you know, just telling AI, oh, well, we'll just dump our transactions into AI... I don't think the auditors would be okay with it.", "source": "https://podcasts.happyscribe.com/money-rehab-with-nicole-lapin/legendary-venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-on-the-ai-bubble-why-ipos-feel-rigged-and-how-to-find-your-dream-job", "source_host": "podcasts.happyscribe.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-243", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "This is new and fast, and it's attacking jobs that haven't been attacked in the past.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/03/venture-capitalist-bill-gurley-warns-workers-college-conveyor-belt-safe-jobs-ai-disruption-first/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-244", "voice": "Bill Gurley", "role": "Benchmark general partner", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "One day we're going to have an AI reset, because waves create bubbles, because interlopers come in.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-bill-gurley-ai-bubble-172307387.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-245", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "We built our own models even as folks said, 'Hey, these frontier models are getting more powerful and cheaper, why don't you just build on them?'", "source": "https://radical.vc/writer-ceo-may-habib-on-full-stack-enterprise-ai/", "source_host": "radical.vc", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-246", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "these frontier models are getting more powerful and cheaper", "source": "https://radical.vc/writer-ceo-may-habib-on-full-stack-enterprise-ai/", "source_host": "radical.vc", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-247", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "AI HQ represents the next era of Writer's evolution as we bring our foundational technology to the world of agentic AI, tackling the toughest work for our customers with enterprise-grade agents.", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250410223841/en/Writer-Launches-AI-HQ-to-Revolutionize-Agentic-Work-in-the-Enterprise", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-04-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-248", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "The biggest barrier to democratizing agents in the enterprise is trust,", "source": "https://press.aboutamazon.com/2025/12/writer-and-aws-team-up-to-make-enterprise-agents-more-scalable-and-secure", "source_host": "press.aboutamazon.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-249", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "the leaders who are putting in the work to radically redesign operations with human-agent collaboration at the center are the ones compounding their advantage in ways competitors can't replicate", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260407140918/en/", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-04-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-250", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "tackling the toughest work for our customers with enterprise-grade agents", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250410223841/en/Writer-Launches-AI-HQ-to-Revolutionize-Agentic-Work-in-the-Enterprise", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-04-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-251", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "the future belongs to the companies putting agent-building power directly into the hands of people closest to the work", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260407140918/en/", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-04-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-252", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "We think that very soon, on a horizon of five to 10 years, we won't be doing work as much as we will be building AI that does the work.", "source": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/writer-unveils-ai-hq-platform-betting-on-agents-to-transform-enterprise-work", "source_host": "venturebeat.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-253", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Layoffs are not a viable AI strategy.", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260407140918/en/", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-04-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-254", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "This will create exciting new roles, new AI-related jobs that are interesting and rewarding.", "source": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/writer-unveils-ai-hq-platform-betting-on-agents-to-transform-enterprise-work", "source_host": "venturebeat.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-255", "voice": "May Habib", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "we won't be doing work as much as we will be building AI that does the work. This will create exciting new roles, new AI-related jobs that are interesting and rewarding.", "source": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/writer-unveils-ai-hq-platform-betting-on-agents-to-transform-enterprise-work", "source_host": "venturebeat.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-256", "voice": "John Halamka", "role": "clinical AI institutional deployment operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "in 2025, the data is good enough, the technology is getting good enough, the compute is getting available enough, and the use cases are getting clearer", "source": "https://www.chiefhealthcareexecutive.com/view/mayo-clinic-s-john-halamka-we-have-to-use-ai-", "source_host": "chiefhealthcareexecutive.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-257", "voice": "John Halamka", "role": "clinical AI institutional deployment operator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "this may soon become our standard of care", "source": "https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/john-halamka-himss26-may-soon-become-our-standard-care", "source_host": "healthcareitnews.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-258", "voice": "John Halamka", "role": "clinical AI institutional deployment operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "there is no such thing as hallucination-free generative AI", "source": "https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/generative-ai-not-reliable-yet-says-mayo-clinics-john-halamka", "source_host": "healthcareitnews.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-259", "voice": "John Halamka", "role": "clinical AI institutional deployment operator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Generative AI is a very different beast because it's not deterministic, it's probabilistic", "source": "https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/generative-ai-not-reliable-yet-says-mayo-clinics-john-halamka", "source_host": "healthcareitnews.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-260", "voice": "John Halamka", "role": "clinical AI institutional deployment operator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "we aren't going to have enough caregivers to be able to deliver the care they need", "source": "https://www.chiefhealthcareexecutive.com/view/mayo-clinic-s-john-halamka-we-have-to-use-ai-", "source_host": "chiefhealthcareexecutive.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-261", "voice": "John Halamka", "role": "clinical AI institutional deployment operator", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "we are going to see a lot of physician workflow and nursing workflow augmented by predictive AI", "source": "https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/generative-ai-not-reliable-yet-says-mayo-clinics-john-halamka", "source_host": "healthcareitnews.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-262", "voice": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The scaling of the current systems, we must push that to the maximum, because at the minimum, it will be a key component of the final AGI system.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/articles/google-deepmind-ceo-demis-hassabis-224741665.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-263", "voice": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "We're seeing incredible gains with the existing techniques, pushing them to the limit.", "source": "https://kantrowitz.medium.com/demis-hassabis-and-sergey-brin-on-ai-scaling-agi-timeline-robotics-simulation-theory-ef3f7a740eeb", "source_host": "kantrowitz.medium.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-264", "voice": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "a lot richer than just the language models and things like AlphaFold", "source": "https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2025/google-deepmind-ceo-ai-designed-drugs-coming-to-clinical-trials-in-2025", "source_host": "pymnts.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-265", "voice": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "If your world model has just a 1% error rate, if you build over 50 or 100 steps, that 1% compounds.", "source": "https://www.computing.co.uk/event/2025/agentic-ai-complex-google-demis-hassabis", "source_host": "computing.co.uk", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-266", "voice": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "frontier lab operator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "We are lacking consistency", "source": "https://analyticsindiamag.com/ai-news-updates/deepminds-demis-hassabis-says-calling-ai-phd-intelligences-is-nonsense/", "source_host": "analyticsindiamag.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-14", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-267", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "I think we're going to see A.I. get even better. It's already extremely good.", "source": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01", "source_host": "transcripts.cnn.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-268", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Each seven months or so, it gets to be able to do tasks that are about twice as long.", "source": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01", "source_host": "transcripts.cnn.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-269", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "It's got better at doing things like reasoning and also at things like deceiving people.", "source": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01", "source_host": "transcripts.cnn.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-270", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "An A.I., to achieve the goals you give it, wants to stay in existence.", "source": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01", "source_host": "transcripts.cnn.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-271", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Along with those wonderful things come some scary things. And I don't think people are putting enough work into how we can mitigate those scary things.", "source": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/sotu/date/2025-12-28/segment/01", "source_host": "transcripts.cnn.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-28", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-272", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "There may be a bubble in the sense that people aren't going to get the money back on their investments", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/geoffrey-hinton-on-why-ai-could-be-a-bubble-because-companies-are-underestimating-social-impacts-of-the-tech/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-18", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-273", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "I think for mundane intellectual labor, AI is just going to replace everybody.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/godfather-ai-reveals-jobs-safest-163407783.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-06-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-274", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "What's actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers. It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/06/godfather-of-ai-geoffrey-hinton-massive-unemployment-soaring-profits-capitalist-system/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-06", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-275", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/06/godfather-of-ai-geoffrey-hinton-massive-unemployment-soaring-profits-capitalist-system/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-06", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-276", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I believe that it can't. I believe that to make money you're going to have to replace human labor.", "source": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/geoffrey-hinton-says-tech-investment-cant-pay-off-without-destroying-jobs", "source_host": "finalroundai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-277", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "He'll get a lot of pressure from industry not to do it.", "source": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-geoffrey-hinton-regulation-ai-evan-solomon/", "source_host": "theglobeandmail.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-278", "voice": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "AI safety + governance", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "Companies will always say that regulation will interfere with innovation.", "source": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-geoffrey-hinton-regulation-ai-evan-solomon/", "source_host": "theglobeandmail.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-26", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-279", "voice": "Sara Hooker", "role": "Adaption Labs co-founder (ex-Cohere)", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "I strongly believe that the next wave of intelligence will be defined by cost of adaptability, not model size. I call this the slow death of scaling.", "source": "https://x.com/sarahookr/status/1976665124963525111", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-280", "voice": "Sara Hooker", "role": "Adaption Labs co-founder (ex-Cohere)", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Most labs won't quadruple the size of their model each year, mainly because we're seeing saturation in the architecture.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/04/adaption-labs-50-million-seed-funding-emergence-captial-sara-hooker-sudip-roy-ai-models-that-learn-on-the-fly/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-281", "voice": "Sara Hooker", "role": "Adaption Labs co-founder (ex-Cohere)", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "the relationship between training compute + performance is uncertain + rapidly changing", "source": "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5877662", "source_host": "papers.ssrn.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-282", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The computation requirement, the scaling law of AI is more resilient, and in fact, hyper accelerated.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/?p=2982546", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-283", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "The computation requirement, the scaling law of AI is more resilient, and in fact, hyper accelerated.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/?p=2982546", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-284", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-285", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The age of AI Agentics is here.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-jensen-huang-says-ai-044815659.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-286", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "There are trillions of dollars of infrastructure that needs to be built out.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/01/21/jensen-huang-on-ai-bubble-largest-infrastructure-buildout-history/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-287", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "We need more energy.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/01/21/jensen-huang-on-ai-bubble-largest-infrastructure-buildout-history/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-21", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-288", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-289", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/17/jensen-huang-ai-infrastructure-buildout-1-trillion-dollars/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-290", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-291", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-292", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-293", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-294", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36226367/jensen-huang-says-blackwell-sales-are-off-the-charts-and-cloud-gpus-are-sold-out-as-nvidia-crushes-q3-earnings-and-beats-analyst-expectations", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-295", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "Where motors replaced labor and physical activity, we now have AI.", "source": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/35499309/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-says-65-of-the-world-s-gdp-or-50-trillion-will-be-augmented-by-ai-just-like-how-motors-replaced-labor", "source_host": "barchart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-296", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Some jobs will be lost. Many jobs would be created. And what I hope is that the productivity gains that we see in all the industries will lift society.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ai-wont-kill-job-mdash-103707225.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-297", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "Some jobs will be lost. Many jobs would be created.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ai-wont-kill-job-mdash-103707225.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-298", "voice": "Jensen Huang", "role": "chips", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "AI empowers people, it lifts people, it closes the technology gap, and as a result, more people will be able to do more things.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ai-wont-kill-job-mdash-103707225.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-299", "voice": "Chip Huyen", "role": "ai engineering", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The unprecedented capabilities of foundation models have opened the door to agentic applications that were previously unimaginable.", "source": "https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html", "source_host": "huyenchip.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-300", "voice": "Chip Huyen", "role": "ai engineering", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "While there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that LLMs are poor planners, it's unclear whether it's because we don't know how to use LLMs the right way or because LLMs, fundamentally, can't plan.", "source": "https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html", "source_host": "huyenchip.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-07", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-301", "voice": "Chip Huyen", "role": "ai engineering", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "If the model's accuracy is 95% per step, over 10 steps, the accuracy will drop to 60%, and over 100 steps, the accuracy will be only 0.6%.", "source": "https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html", "source_host": "huyenchip.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-07", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-302", "voice": "Chip Huyen", "role": "ai engineering", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Just as you shouldn't give an intern the authority to delete your production database, you shouldn't allow an unreliable AI to initiate bank transfers.", "source": "https://huyenchip.com/2025/01/07/agents.html", "source_host": "huyenchip.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-01-07", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-303", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The last year has been all about AI agents and expectations have been sky-high. When you see these reports, that's what's coming out.", "source": "https://siliconangle.com/2025/09/26/glean-pushes-toward-enterprise-ai-agents-aifactoriesdatacenters/", "source_host": "siliconangle.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-304", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Of course, over the years [AI] has gotten better, so now it can actually not just find information for you, not just answer questions, but can actually do a lot of your work on your behalf.", "source": "https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/ai-cant-replace-humans-indian-origin-glean-ceo-arvind-jain-calms-layoff-fears-532643-2026-05-21", "source_host": "businesstoday.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-305", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "You have to connect the reasoning and generative power of the models with the context inside your company.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-306", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Of course, over the years [AI] has gotten better, so now it can actually not just find information for you, not just answer questions, but can actually do a lot of your work on your behalf.", "source": "https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/ai-cant-replace-humans-indian-origin-glean-ceo-arvind-jain-calms-layoff-fears-532643-2026-05-21", "source_host": "businesstoday.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-307", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "You need to build a permissions-aware governance layer and retrieval layer that is able to bring the right information, but knowing who's asking that question.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-308", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "They're not experimenting anymore - they're operationalizing AI to drive ROI at scale.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glean-surpasses-200m-arr-enterprise-231500406.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-309", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Our product gets better because we're able to leverage the innovation that they are making in the market.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-310", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "They're not experimenting anymore - they're operationalizing AI to drive ROI at scale.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glean-surpasses-200m-arr-enterprise-231500406.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-311", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "We have a very healthy, fast-growing business.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/15/the-enterprise-ai-land-grab-is-on-glean-is-building-the-layer-beneath-the-interface/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-312", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "we're not seeing any role getting eliminated. Not today", "source": "https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/ai-cant-replace-humans-indian-origin-glean-ceo-arvind-jain-calms-layoff-fears-532643-2026-05-21", "source_host": "businesstoday.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-21", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-313", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "But practically we work with the largest enterprises in the world, and we're not seeing any role getting eliminated—not today.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/20/tech-ceos-warn-job-losses-glean-chief-says-ai-never-replace-a-single-worker/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-314", "voice": "Arvind Jain", "role": "enterprise context layer", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I don't think AI—or actually, for me, hopefully forever, too—AI never replaces any human, and it just actually augments us, enables us, allows us to do higher quality work", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/20/tech-ceos-warn-job-losses-glean-chief-says-ai-never-replace-a-single-worker/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-315", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "2025 has been a strong and eventful year of progress in LLMs.", "source": "https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/", "source_host": "karpathy.bearblog.dev", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-316", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "2025 has been a strong and eventful year of progress in LLMs.", "source": "https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/", "source_host": "karpathy.bearblog.dev", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-317", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "this is really a lot more accurately described as the decade of agents.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-318", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "this is really a lot more accurately described as the decade of agents.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-17", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-319", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "They don't have enough intelligence, they're not multimodal enough, they can't do computer use and all this stuff", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-17", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-320", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "There's this what I call 'autonomy slider,' where more and more stuff is automated—of the stuff that can be automated at any point in time—and we're doing a bit less and less and raising ourselves in the layer of abstraction over the automation.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-321", "voice": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "engineer educator", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "There's this what I call 'autonomy slider,' where more and more stuff is automated—of the stuff that can be automated at any point in time—and we're doing a bit less and less and raising ourselves in the layer of abstraction over the automation.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-322", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "It's a stepwise improvement on the existing product offerings. But it isn't a quantum leap.", "source": "https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism", "source_host": "davekarpf.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-15", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-323", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "The velocity of change feels like it is slowing down.", "source": "https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism", "source_host": "davekarpf.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-15", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-324", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "GPT5 can't count the Bs in 'blueberry.' Oh, and it STILL hallucinates.", "source": "https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism", "source_host": "davekarpf.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-15", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-325", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "GPT5 can't count the Bs in 'blueberry.' Oh, and it STILL hallucinates.", "source": "https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/gpt5-and-the-end-of-naive-ai-futurism", "source_host": "davekarpf.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-15", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-326", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Capital expenditures on AI now account for something like 40% of U.S. economic activity", "source": "https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/its-giving-enron", "source_host": "davekarpf.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-14", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-327", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "All the major AI companies are reporting massive growth in their subscription plans, while also facing the obvious problem that those subscriptions are revenue-negative.", "source": "https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-of-ai-bubble-are-we-in", "source_host": "davekarpf.beehiiv.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-328", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "All the major AI companies are reporting massive growth in their subscription plans, while also facing the obvious problem that those subscriptions are revenue-negative.", "source": "https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-of-ai-bubble-are-we-in", "source_host": "davekarpf.beehiiv.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-329", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "AI companies have not generated the demand to pay for the expensive data centers. They've generated and subsidized the demand for compute.", "source": "https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-of-ai-bubble-are-we-in", "source_host": "davekarpf.beehiiv.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-330", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "The government will supply public money to backstop huge Silicon Valley bets, recognizing that if the bubble were to pop before the November election, it would prompt a 2008-scale financial crisis.", "source": "https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/some-2026-predictions", "source_host": "davekarpf.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-22", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-331", "voice": "David Karpf", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "I suspect the next few years will see an awful lot of anti-data center activism.", "source": "https://davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/ai-populism-is-a-term-that-obscures-more-than-it-reveals-a4db", "source_host": "davekarpf.beehiiv.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-332", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Starting in about 2030, 80% of all jobs, so two-thirds of all jobs, will be capable of being done by an AI.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/vinod-khosla-predicts-80-percent-of-jobs-done-by-ai-15-trillion-of-gdp-going-away/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-333", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/07/01/silicon-valley-investor-vinod-khosla-ai-job-prediction-interview/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-334", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Almost all expertise globally will be free. It'll raise lots of interesting questions.", "source": "https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/almost-all-expertise-globally-will-be-free-vinod-khosla-questions-wages-in-ai-world-91584.htm", "source_host": "storyboard18.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-335", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "almost every job is being reinvented, every material thing is being reinvented differently with AI as a driver", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/07/01/silicon-valley-investor-vinod-khosla-ai-job-prediction-interview/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-336", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "People equate bubble to stock prices, which has nothing to do with anything other than fear and greed among investors", "source": "https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls", "source_host": "finviz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-337", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Bubbles should be measured by the number of API calls", "source": "https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls", "source_host": "finviz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-338", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Bubbles should be measured by the number of API calls", "source": "https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls", "source_host": "finviz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-339", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Bubbles should be measured by the number of API calls", "source": "https://finviz.com/news/280657/vinod-khosla-on-ai-bubble-fears-people-equate-bubble-to-stock-prices-but-real-demand-is-in-api-calls", "source_host": "finviz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-340", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "$15 trillion of U.S. GDP is labor, and that $15 trillion will mostly go away.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/vinod-khosla-predicts-80-percent-of-jobs-done-by-ai-15-trillion-of-gdp-going-away/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-341", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "There will be massive job dislocation", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/vinod-khosla-hill-valley-american-politics-fear-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-30", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-342", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "$15 trillion of U.S. GDP is labor, $15 trillion that will mostly go away.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/vinod-khosla-predicts-80-percent-of-jobs-done-by-ai-15-trillion-of-gdp-going-away/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-06", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-343", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Will there be new kinds of jobs? Maybe, maybe not.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/vinod-khosla-hill-valley-american-politics-fear-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-30", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-344", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "The single biggest danger to AI is not AI capability or lack thereof. The single biggest danger to AI adoption is politics", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/24/vinod-khosla-hill-valley-american-politics-fear-ai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-30", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-345", "voice": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures founder", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "We're in a techno-economic war with China, and we shouldn't call it anything other than a war.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/the-us-is-in-a-techno-economic-war-with-china-vinod-khosla/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-23", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-346", "voice": "Isaac (Zak) Kohane", "role": "clinical AI deployment + evaluation", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "It was truly a quantum leap from anything that anybody in computer science who was honest with themselves would have predicted in the next 10 years.", "source": "https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/how-ai-is-transforming-medicine-healthcare/", "source_host": "news.harvard.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-347", "voice": "Isaac (Zak) Kohane", "role": "clinical AI deployment + evaluation", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "GPT-5 Pro just disproved a conjecture on the list of the Simon's Foundation's \"Open Problems\" list. Very impressive. I wonder where the goal posts will move now?", "source": "https://x.com/zakkohane/status/1974962623855923356", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-348", "voice": "Isaac (Zak) Kohane", "role": "clinical AI deployment + evaluation", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "GPT-5 Pro just disproved a conjecture on the list of the Simon's Foundation's \"Open Problems\" list. Very impressive. I wonder where the goal posts will move now?", "source": "https://x.com/zakkohane/status/1974962623855923356", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-349", "voice": "Isaac (Zak) Kohane", "role": "clinical AI deployment + evaluation", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "It is no longer a conversation about, 'Will AI replace doctors,' so much as, 'Will AI, with a set of clinicians who may not look like the clinicians that we're used to, firm up the tottering edifice that is organized medicine?'", "source": "https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/how-ai-is-transforming-medicine-healthcare/", "source_host": "news.harvard.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-350", "voice": "Isaac (Zak) Kohane", "role": "clinical AI deployment + evaluation", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Having an instant second opinion after any interaction with a clinician will change, for the better, the nature of the doctor-patient relationship.", "source": "https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/03/how-ai-is-transforming-medicine-healthcare/", "source_host": "news.harvard.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-351", "voice": "Daphne Koller", "role": "AI drug discovery operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "I remain very excited by the potential of AI and the potential of foundation models within AI, but specifically expanding the notion of foundation models beyond the sort of ones that people typically think about, which is text and images on the web", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/07/09/leadership-next-daphne-koller-insitro-coursera/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-352", "voice": "Daphne Koller", "role": "AI drug discovery operator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "And in fact, it did take away a lot of jobs. I mean, electricity certainly took a lot of jobs, right? I mean, the agricultural revolution took away a lot of jobs.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/07/09/leadership-next-daphne-koller-insitro-coursera/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-353", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Frontier AI models are rapidly becoming better and more efficient", "source": "https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/April-2025-EERN-Anton-Korinek-The-Economics-of-Transformative-AI.pdf", "source_host": "frbsf.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-354", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "As it turns out, AI has gotten very powerful within one decade, much more quickly than almost anybody expected.", "source": "https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2025/q4_interview", "source_host": "richmondfed.org", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-355", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "currently rapid progress", "source": "https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/April-2025-EERN-Anton-Korinek-The-Economics-of-Transformative-AI.pdf", "source_host": "frbsf.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-356", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "the more these autonomous agents roll out, the more AI will become a technology that actually displaces work rather than just complimenting it.", "source": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--the-ai-economy-and-you--how-ai-is--will--and-may-alter-the-nature-of-work-and-economic-growth-with-anton-korinek--nathan-goldschlag--and-bharat-chandar", "source_host": "lawfaremedia.org", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-357", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "build on greater LLM reliability, longer context windows, faster speed", "source": "https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/April-2025-EERN-Anton-Korinek-The-Economics-of-Transformative-AI.pdf", "source_host": "frbsf.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-358", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "Recent advances in AI may herald the near arrival of systems that can automate essentially all work.", "source": "https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/economic-growth-under-transformative-ai/", "source_host": "digitaleconomy.stanford.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-359", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "if our economy fundamentally changes. If it becomes an AGI-driven economy, then I think we have to acknowledge that the role of labor will have to decline and just telling people to be more dynamic would not be a solution.", "source": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--the-ai-economy-and-you--how-ai-is--will--and-may-alter-the-nature-of-work-and-economic-growth-with-anton-korinek--nathan-goldschlag--and-bharat-chandar", "source_host": "lawfaremedia.org", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-360", "voice": "Anton Korinek", "role": "public finance", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "the more these autonomous agents roll out, the more AI will become a technology that actually displaces work rather than just complimenting it.", "source": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/scaling-laws--the-ai-economy-and-you--how-ai-is--will--and-may-alter-the-nature-of-work-and-economic-growth-with-anton-korinek--nathan-goldschlag--and-bharat-chandar", "source_host": "lawfaremedia.org", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-361", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-362", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "2026 should be another strong year for AI stocks, with capex likely to surpass expectations.", "source": "https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/investors-bracing-ai-bubble-reckoning", "source_host": "futurism.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-363", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "This momentum is spreading geographically and across a diverse list of industries, from technology and utilities to banks, healthcare and logistics, creating winners and losers in the process.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-364", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-365", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-366", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-367", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Enterprise software remains deeply embedded across the corporate landscape, underpinned by multi-year contracts and high switching costs that provide a significant buffer against near-term displacement.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/stocks-2-trillion-software-wipeout-ai-bull-market/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-368", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "Importantly, emerging evidence suggests that AI is more likely to be additive to software workflows in the near term rather than a substitute.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/stocks-2-trillion-software-wipeout-ai-bull-market/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-10", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-369", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "The market is pricing in worst-case AI disruption scenarios that are unlikely to materialize over the next three to six months.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/stocks-2-trillion-software-wipeout-ai-bull-market/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-370", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "At the heart of our outlook is a multidimensional polarization: equity markets split between AI and non-AI sectors, a U.S. economy balancing robust capex with soft labor demand, and a widening divide in household spending.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-371", "voice": "Dubravko Lakos-Bujas", "role": "equity research", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal policy.", "source": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook", "source_host": "jpmorgan.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-372", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "LLMs are incredibly useful... But at it ends, to some extent, except for a few domains, are mostly information retrieval systems.", "source": "https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/india-ai-impact-summit-2026-yann-lecun-calls-agi-overhyped-ai-should-amplify-human-intelligence-516980-2026-02-19", "source_host": "businesstoday.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-373", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Don't work on LLMs. [These models are] in the hands of large companies, there's nothing you can bring to the table. You should work on next-gen AI systems that lift the limitations of LLMs.", "source": "https://www.newsweek.com/nw-ai/ai-impact-interview-yann-lecun-artificial-intelligence-2054237", "source_host": "newsweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-02", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-374", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "An LLM produces one token after another. It goes through a fixed amount of computation to produce a token, and that's clearly System 1—it's reactive, right? There's no reasoning.", "source": "https://www.newsweek.com/nw-ai/ai-impact-interview-yann-lecun-artificial-intelligence-2054237", "source_host": "newsweek.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-02", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-375", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Basing agentic systems on LLMs is a recipe for disaster", "source": "https://medium.com/data-science-collective/yann-lecun-building-ai-agents-on-llms-is-a-recipe-for-disaster-heres-his-alternative-0e521b2bed6c", "source_host": "medium.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-376", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "all of those companies are losing money, and basically, the use for most people is funded by the investors.", "source": "https://thenextweb.com/news/yann-lecun-xai-failure-ai-bubble-explosion", "source_host": "thenextweb.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-18", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-377", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "are going to have to increase prices, they're going to have to cut costs, or there's going to be a big bubble explosion", "source": "https://thenextweb.com/news/yann-lecun-xai-failure-ai-bubble-explosion", "source_host": "thenextweb.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-18", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-378", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "The prices are going up… but the cost of running them is going down, but not nearly fast enough.", "source": "https://thenextweb.com/news/yann-lecun-xai-failure-ai-bubble-explosion", "source_host": "thenextweb.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-18", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-379", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Dario is wrong. He knows absolutely nothing about the effects of technological revolutions on the labor market.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/knows-nothing-about-labour-markets-yann-lecun-says-dario-amodei-is-wrong-about-ai-disrupting-50-of-white-collar-jobs/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-380", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "Don't listen to him, Sam, Yoshua, Geoff, or me on this topic. Listen to economists who have spent their career studying this, like @Ph_Aghion, @erikbryn...", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/knows-nothing-about-labour-markets-yann-lecun-says-dario-amodei-is-wrong-about-ai-disrupting-50-of-white-collar-jobs/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-381", "voice": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta chief AI scientist", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I think the most interesting thing that we're going to build is an amplifier for human intelligence.", "source": "https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/story/india-ai-impact-summit-2026-yann-lecun-calls-agi-overhyped-ai-should-amplify-human-intelligence-516980-2026-02-19", "source_host": "businesstoday.in", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-382", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Spatial intelligence will transform how we create and interact with real and virtual worlds—revolutionizing storytelling, creativity, robotics, scientific discovery, and beyond. This is AI's next frontier.", "source": "https://drfeifei.substack.com/p/from-words-to-worlds-spatial-intelligence", "source_host": "drfeifei.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-383", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Yet they remain wordsmiths in the dark; eloquent but inexperienced, knowledgeable but ungrounded.", "source": "https://drfeifei.substack.com/p/from-words-to-worlds-spatial-intelligence", "source_host": "drfeifei.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-10", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-384", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The vision of autonomous robots remains intriguing but speculative, far from the fixtures of daily life that futurists have long promised.", "source": "https://drfeifei.substack.com/p/from-words-to-worlds-spatial-intelligence", "source_host": "drfeifei.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-10", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-385", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "robots and multimodal systems still struggle with grounded spatial reasoning, leaving them unable to judge distances and scene changes, or to predict basic physical outcomes", "source": "https://decrypt.co/348051/ai-progress-now-depends-world-models-grasp-physical-reality", "source_host": "decrypt.co", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-10", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-386", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Technologies do change the landscape of labor", "source": "https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-fei-fei-li-weekend-interview/", "source_host": "bloomberg.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-387", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "Technologies do change the landscape of labor", "source": "https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-fei-fei-li-weekend-interview/", "source_host": "bloomberg.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-388", "voice": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "foundation AI capability principal", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I would not hire any software engineer who does not embrace AI collaborative software tools", "source": "https://tim.blog/2025/12/10/dr-fei-fei-li-the-godmother-of-ai-transcript/", "source_host": "tim.blog", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-389", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "GPT-5 is just the latest incremental advance. And it felt rushed at that.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-08-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-390", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "GPT-5 is barely better than last month's flavor of the month (Grok 4); on some metrics it's actually worse.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-08-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-391", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "GPT-5 still fails in all the same qualitative ways as its predecessors, on chess, on reasoning, in vision.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-08-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-392", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "General purpose agents that turn out to suck so badly people struggle to find real-world use cases.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-overdue-overhyped-and-underwhelming", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-08-09", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-393", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "The same problems have continued to plague every single model since—from GPT 4.0 to GPT 4.1 to GPT 4.5 and GPT-5", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-29", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-394", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "If September 2025 was peak bubble, 2026 will likely the year which it all falls apart.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-26", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-395", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "If September 2025 was peak bubble, 2026 will likely the year which it all falls apart.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-26", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-396", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "But the economics don't make sense, and never will, in large part because of the core technical problems that I have stressed repeatedly here and elsewhere since 2019.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-all-over-now-baby", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-26", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-397", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "The growth in adoption really does seem to be slowing.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-29", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-398", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "large language models have become a commodity", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/three-years-on-chatgpt-still-isnt", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-29", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-399", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "In many cases AI may be serving as a fig leaf to cover layoffs that are actually driven by financial underperformance or earlier overhiring.", "source": "https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-automation-expert", "source_host": "futurism.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-400", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "In many cases AI may be serving as a fig leaf to cover layoffs that are actually driven by financial underperformance or earlier overhiring.", "source": "https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-automation-expert", "source_host": "futurism.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-401", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "In many cases AI may be serving as a fig leaf to cover layoffs that are actually driven by financial underperformance or earlier overhiring.", "source": "https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-jobs-automation-expert", "source_host": "futurism.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-402", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-403", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-20", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-404", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-20", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-405", "voice": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU professor emeritus", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.", "source": "https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026", "source_host": "garymarcus.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-20", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-406", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The number of tasks that you can do within an enterprise, or as a user using generative AI systems, is definitely growing, and it's going to continue to grow.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/mistrals-ceo-says-reaching-agi-120110127.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-407", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "The number of tasks that you can do within an enterprise, or as a user using generative AI systems, is definitely growing, and it's going to continue to grow.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/mistrals-ceo-says-reaching-agi-120110127.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-408", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We move from AI to AGI at some point, but that's a marketing move.", "source": "https://www.aol.com/mistrals-ceo-says-reaching-agi-120110127.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-409", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Scaling our infrastructure in Europe is critical to empower our customers and to ensure AI innovation and autonomy remain at the heart of Europe.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/mistral-ai-raises-830m-in-debt-to-set-up-a-data-center-near-paris/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-410", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "Owning the chips may come, I think it should come at some point, but for now we are relying on Nvidia, which is a great partner to us, and we're testing a few things here and there.", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/mistral-arthur-mensch-design-chips-ai-data-centers.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-28", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-411", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Scaling our infrastructure in Europe is critical to empower our customers and to ensure AI innovation and autonomy remain at the heart of Europe.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/mistral-ai-raises-830m-in-debt-to-set-up-a-data-center-near-paris/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-412", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "There's still a lot of viscosity in adoption in enterprises, which means that there's still … a lot of value creation to be had.", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/tech-download-mistral-mensch-agentic-ai-chips.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-06-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-413", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "We should exceed one billion in revenue by the end of the year.", "source": "https://www.maddyness.com/uk/2026/01/23/mistral-ai-on-track-to-reach-one-billion-euros-in-revenue-by-2026/", "source_host": "maddyness.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-01-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-414", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "There's still a lot of viscosity in adoption in enterprises, which means that there's still … a lot of value creation to be had.", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/tech-download-mistral-mensch-agentic-ai-chips.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-06-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-415", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "lower the cost of deploying tokens to meaningful extents", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/mistral-arthur-mensch-design-chips-ai-data-centers.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-416", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "There's still a lot of viscosity in adoption in enterprises, which means that there's still … a lot of value creation to be had.", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/tech-download-mistral-mensch-agentic-ai-chips.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-06-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-417", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "It will have an impact on GDP of every country in the double digits in the coming years", "source": "https://slashdot.org/story/25/03/24/1527230/ai-will-impact-gdp-of-every-country-by-double-digits-says-mistral-ceo", "source_host": "slashdot.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-418", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Enterprises should be looking at how to re-orchestrate all of the people that are involved in that process around an AI system.", "source": "https://capwolf.com/mistral-ceo-arthur-mensch-on-agentic-ai-custom-chips-and-enterprise-reality/", "source_host": "capwolf.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-06-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-419", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "It will be decided in the next two years.", "source": "https://cybernews.com/ai-news/europe-vassal-state/", "source_host": "cybernews.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-420", "voice": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "open weight lab principal", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "in a workable state", "source": "https://www.mlex.com/mlex/articles/2305582/eu-s-ai-regulation-is-far-from-ideal-but-is-workable-mistral-ceo-says", "source_host": "mlex.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-03-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-421", "voice": "Mira Murati", "role": "frontier lab founder", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "[W]e are building models at the frontier of capabilities in domains like science and programming", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/thinking-machines-lab-is-ex-openai-cto-mira-muratis-new-startup/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-422", "voice": "Mira Murati", "role": "frontier lab founder", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "the most advanced models will unlock the most transformative applications and benefits, such as enabling novel scientific discoveries and engineering breakthroughs", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/18/thinking-machines-lab-is-ex-openai-cto-mira-muratis-new-startup/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-423", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "this is still early innings. We've built some very useful things, we're seeing some great properties, these scaling laws seem to be working.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-424", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "I'm optimistic that they'll continue to work. Some of it does require real science breakthroughs, but it's also a lot of engineering", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-425", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The second world is the company just literally provisions a computing resource for an AI agent, and that is working fully autonomously.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-426", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "There will be an overbuild", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-427", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power", "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-the-company-doesnt-have-enough-electricity-to-install-all-the-ai-gpus-in-its-inventory-you-may-actually-have-a-bunch-of-chips-sitting-in-inventory-that-i-cant-plug-in", "source_host": "tomshardware.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-29", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-428", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "It's not a supply issue of chips; it's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into.", "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-the-company-doesnt-have-enough-electricity-to-install-all-the-ai-gpus-in-its-inventory-you-may-actually-have-a-bunch-of-chips-sitting-in-inventory-that-i-cant-plug-in", "source_host": "tomshardware.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-10-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-429", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "I am thrilled that I'm going to be leasing a lot of capacity in '27, '28.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-02-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-430", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Cloud and AI is the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector", "source": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2025-q4/press-release-webcast", "source_host": "microsoft.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-431", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "this year, Azure surpassed $75 billion in revenue, up 34 percent, driven by growth across all workloads", "source": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2025-q4/press-release-webcast", "source_host": "microsoft.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-432", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "the coding assistant is that big in one year...the market expands massively", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-433", "voice": "Satya Nadella", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "Now, we have fully autonomous agents, and you can hand over an entire project to them, and they can work 24/7.", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3647909750141700", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-434", "voice": "Michael Nathanson", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Alphabet emerges as one of the net winners in the AI race and remains the best positioned company to monetize and scale GenAI opportunities.", "source": "https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/alphabet-is-the-most-valuable-company-not-nvidia-analyst/497581", "source_host": "entrepreneur.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-435", "voice": "Michael Nathanson", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "The truth is, we're at the dawn of a new technology shift and it's really hard to know the sustainability of top line.", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-06", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-436", "voice": "Michael Nathanson", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "Alphabet emerges as one of the net winners in the AI race and remains the best positioned company to monetize and scale GenAI opportunities.", "source": "https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/alphabet-is-the-most-valuable-company-not-nvidia-analyst/497581", "source_host": "entrepreneur.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-437", "voice": "Michael Nathanson", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Alphabet emerges as one of the net winners in the AI race and remains the best positioned company to monetize and scale GenAI opportunities.", "source": "https://finviz.com/news/179009/wall-street-says-alphabet-googl-could-become-worlds-most-valuable-company", "source_host": "finviz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-438", "voice": "Michael Nathanson", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Google remains the one to beat in GenAI search.", "source": "https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/alphabet-is-the-most-valuable-company-not-nvidia-analyst/497581", "source_host": "entrepreneur.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-439", "voice": "Ed Newton-Rex", "role": "creator rights / training data ethics", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "The government is simply declining to make a decision on AI and copyright yet, when one is sorely needed.", "source": "https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366640523/UK-government-puts-brakes-on-opt-out-copyright-exemption-for-AI", "source_host": "computerweekly.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-440", "voice": "Ed Newton-Rex", "role": "creator rights / training data ethics", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "If AI companies get the right to use the life's work of the world's creators for free, they'll do so by stoking governments' fears of losing the AI race.", "source": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/creators-ai-copyright-battle-1236192627/", "source_host": "hollywoodreporter.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-441", "voice": "Ed Newton-Rex", "role": "creator rights / training data ethics", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "Only when the government commits to standing by existing copyright law will the market for licensing training data to AI developers be able to reach its full potential.", "source": "https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366640523/UK-government-puts-brakes-on-opt-out-copyright-exemption-for-AI", "source_host": "computerweekly.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-442", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Reasoning ability significantly improves the performance of LLMs, but better output comes with a cost.", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3617702870516739", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-443", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Reasoning models also help agents handle complex problems.", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3617702870516739", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-444", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "The tricky thing about AI is that it is amazing and it is also highly limited", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ai-pioneer-says-technology-limited-110000521.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-27", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-445", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Although these applications perform well in demonstrations, they still have a long way to go before they can be put into large-scale production", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3438070821653888", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-08-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-446", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "the 'computer-using' ability can be successful in some scenarios, but the failure rate is still not low", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3438070821653888", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-08-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-447", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "I don't think we're overbuilding right now, but if any part of the AI market faces that possibility, it's the training layer.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-ng-says-agi-decades-110000122.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-27", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-448", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Many companies are not yet seeing strong returns, they continue to invest because they understand that AI will eventually deliver value.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-ng-says-agi-decades-110000122.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-27", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-449", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "the real business opportunity in AI lies in the application layer", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3387152985446529", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-450", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Many companies are not yet seeing strong returns, they continue to invest because they understand that AI will eventually deliver value.", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-ng-says-agi-decades-110000122.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-27", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-451", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "the application layer is the hub connecting technology and the market, with the highest value density.", "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3387152985446529", "source_host": "eu.36kr.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-452", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "People that use AI to write code will just be more productive...than people that don't", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ai-pioneer-says-technology-limited-110000521.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-27", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-453", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "as coding becomes easier...more people should code, not fewer", "source": "https://www.aol.com/ai-pioneer-says-technology-limited-110000521.html", "source_host": "aol.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-27", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-454", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "While there is a role for AI regulation, it is when the technology is new and poorly understood that", "source": "https://x.com/AndrewYNg/status/1943710282381180934", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-11", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-455", "voice": "Andrew Ng", "role": "application layer builder educator investor", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "I'm disappointed it didn't include a proposed moratorium on U.S. state-level AI regulation.", "source": "https://x.com/AndrewYNg/status/1943710282381180934", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-456", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "If the models don't improve, yes, we will overbuild, right? Like, it's pretty simple.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-inside-the-trillion-dollar-ai-buildout-dylan-patel-on-invest-like-the-best-podcast/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-457", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Google announced 180 billion of CapEx. The stock went down and then Amazon announced 200 billion of CapEx and their stock went down, like, I wanna say like 10%.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-458", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "Is there a bubble? Are we doing too much?", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-459", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "And people just have not built these fabs yet. Right.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-460", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "There's no reason why Google will have any profit, uh, in 27 at all. Right? In terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on, on AI infrastructure.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-461", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Yes, this CapEx is crazy, but I'm not doubling my hardware every two months, but I'm doubling my tokens every two months.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-inside-the-trillion-dollar-ai-buildout-dylan-patel-on-invest-like-the-best-podcast/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-462", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "There's no reason why Google will have any profit, uh, in 27 at all. Right? In terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on, on AI infrastructure.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-463", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Anthropic added two and a half billion of revenue, um, and their gross margin is 40%.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-464", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Anthropic added two and a half billion of revenue, um, and their gross margin is 40%.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dylanpatel-cooking", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-28", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-465", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "If I could have an intelligence as smart as a Google Senior engineer, that's $2 trillion of software value.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-inside-the-trillion-dollar-ai-buildout-dylan-patel-on-invest-like-the-best-podcast/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-30", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-466", "voice": "Dylan Patel", "role": "semiconductor supply chain analyst", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "If the current trajectory of AI spending continues, it could exceed 100% of salary expenses by the end of the year.", "source": "https://cryptobriefing.com/dylan-patel-unbounded-demand-for-ai-tools-is-reshaping-budgets-ai-spending-could-exceed-salary-expenses-and-workforce-efficiency-is-drastically-changing-invest-like-the-best/", "source_host": "cryptobriefing.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-23", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-467", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Elo scores, a measure of progress, are up more than 300 points since our first-generation Gemini Pro model.", "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-468", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Gemini 3 Pro has consistently processed three times as many daily tokens on average as 2.5 Pro.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-469", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "We're introducing an enhanced reasoning mode we're calling Deep Think.", "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-470", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We think of agents as systems that combine the intelligence of advanced AI models with access to tools, so they can take actions on your behalf and under your control.", "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-471", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "We think of agents as systems that combine the intelligence of advanced AI models with access to tools, so they can take actions on your behalf and under your control.", "source": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/ai/io-2025-keynote/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-472", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "Our 2026 CapEx investments are anticipated to be in the range of $175 to $185 billion.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-473", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "There are moments we overshoot, right, collectively as an industry", "source": "https://www.malaymail.com/news/tech-gadgets/2025/11/19/google-boss-warns-no-one-escapes-if-the-ai-bubble-bursts-including-us/198885", "source_host": "malaymail.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-474", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "We have the industry's widest variety of compute options. That includes GPUs from our partner NVIDIA... Plus, our own TPUs that we've been developing for a decade.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-475", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "I think no company is going to be immune, including us", "source": "https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5610860-ai-boom-irrationality-sundar-pichai/", "source_host": "thehill.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-11-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-476", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "In Q4, revenue from products built on our generative AI models grew nearly 400% year-over-year.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-477", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "Cloud significantly accelerated with revenues growing 48%, now on an annual run rate of over $70 billion.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-478", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "We have sold more than eight million paid seats of Gemini Enterprise, which we launched just four months ago.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-479", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "We have sold more than eight million paid seats of Gemini Enterprise, which we launched just four months ago.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-480", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "we were able to lower Gemini serving unit costs by 78% over 2025 through model optimizations, efficiency and utilization improvements.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-481", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "In Q4, revenue from products built on our generative AI models grew nearly 400% year-over-year.", "source": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q4-2025/", "source_host": "blog.google", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-482", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "AI is the most profound technology humanity is ever working on, and it has potential for extraordinary benefits, and we will have to work through societal disruption.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/02/ai-wipes-jobs-google-ceo-sundar-pichai-everyday-people-to-adapt-accordingly-we-have-to-work-through-societal-disruption/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-18", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-483", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "It doesn't matter whether you want to be a teacher, a doctor—all those professions will be around, but the people who will do well in each of those professions are people who learn how to use these tools.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/12/02/ai-wipes-jobs-google-ceo-sundar-pichai-everyday-people-to-adapt-accordingly-we-have-to-work-through-societal-disruption/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-484", "voice": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "hyperscaler ceo", "question": "Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?", "quote": "every aspect of our technology", "source": "https://www.npr.org/2025/04/30/nx-s1-5382294/sundar-pichai-google-antitrust-testimony", "source_host": "npr.org", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-04-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-485", "voice": "Lee Rainie", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "These findings start to establish a baseline for the way humans and AI systems will evolve together in the coming years, particularly as we draw nearer and nearer to artificial general intelligence.", "source": "https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2025/03/12/survey-52-of-u-s-adults-now-use-ai-large-language-models-like-chatgpt/", "source_host": "elon.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-486", "voice": "Lee Rainie", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "They anticipate that AI systems will keep encroaching on and surpassing some fundamental human intelligences and they worry this will be demoralizing and debilitating for us.", "source": "https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2025/04/02/report-technology-experts-worry-about-the-future-of-being-human-in-the-ai-age/", "source_host": "elon.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-487", "voice": "Lee Rainie", "role": "public opinion", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "By any measure, the adoption and use of LLMs is astounding. I am especially struck by the ways these tools are being woven into people's social lives.", "source": "https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2025/03/12/survey-52-of-u-s-adults-now-use-ai-large-language-models-like-chatgpt/", "source_host": "elon.edu", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-488", "voice": "Alex Ratner", "role": "data development + agent evaluation", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "agentic systems will not be deployed unless they become as trusted as human experts—and learning only from public internet data can’t possibly get us to this level of accuracy and trust, no matter how advanced the underlying LLMs become.", "source": "https://snorkel.ai/blog/building-the-ai-data-development-platform-for-specialized-ai/", "source_host": "snorkel.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-489", "voice": "Alex Ratner", "role": "data development + agent evaluation", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "agentic systems will not be deployed unless they become as trusted as human experts—and learning only from public internet data can’t possibly get us to this level of accuracy and trust, no matter how advanced the underlying LLMs become.", "source": "https://snorkel.ai/blog/building-the-ai-data-development-platform-for-specialized-ai/", "source_host": "snorkel.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-490", "voice": "Alex Ratner", "role": "data development + agent evaluation", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We are seeing a surge of momentum around agentic AI, but specialized enterprise agents aren't ready for production in most settings.", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250529083998/en/Snorkel-AI-Announces-$100-Million-Series-D-and-Expanded-Platform-to-Power-Next-Phase-of-AI-with-Expert-Data", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-29", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-491", "voice": "Alex Ratner", "role": "data development + agent evaluation", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "These systems will not be deployed unless they become as trusted as human experts.", "source": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/bayarea/2025/07/22/ai-startups-bridging-the-gap-from-research-breakthroughs-to-real-world-impact/", "source_host": "blogs.microsoft.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-22", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-492", "voice": "Alex Ratner", "role": "data development + agent evaluation", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Enterprises need domain-specific data and expertise to make this a reality. We're excited to deliver on this need and help AI innovators develop expert data to bring their LLM and agentic systems into production with our new offerings, which round out Snorkel's unified AI data development stack.", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250529083998/en/Snorkel-AI-Announces-$100-Million-Series-D-and-Expanded-Platform-to-Power-Next-Phase-of-AI-with-Expert-Data", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-493", "voice": "Alex Ratner", "role": "data development + agent evaluation", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "Enterprises need domain-specific data and expertise to make this a reality. We're excited to deliver on this need and help AI innovators develop expert data to bring their LLM and agentic systems into production with our new offerings, which round out Snorkel's unified AI data development stack.", "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250529083998/en/Snorkel-AI-Announces-$100-Million-Series-D-and-Expanded-Platform-to-Power-Next-Phase-of-AI-with-Expert-Data", "source_host": "businesswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-494", "voice": "Pascual Restrepo", "role": "Pascual Restrepo", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "A lot of these claims are premature. Many of the people making them have an interest in selling a product, so you have to take them with a grain of salt.", "source": "https://phys.org/news/2026-03-expert-opinion-ai-automation-future.html", "source_host": "phys.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-495", "voice": "Pascual Restrepo", "role": "Pascual Restrepo", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "You cannot automate everything tomorrow because we simply don't have enough computing power to do it.", "source": "https://phys.org/news/2026-03-expert-opinion-ai-automation-future.html", "source_host": "phys.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-496", "voice": "Max Rieper", "role": "Max Rieper", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "Looking ahead to 2026, lawmakers are expected to broaden their approach beyond punishing individual creators and distributors of deepfakes to include entities that enable production and dissemination, such as generative AI platforms, payment processors, hosting platforms, and cloud providers.", "source": "https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/2/12/how-ai-generated-content-laws-are-changing-across-the-country", "source_host": "multistate.us", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-497", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-498", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "There isn't enough compute for AI to benefit everyone. We're partnering with the White House and the Department of Energy to change that.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-partners-with-us-department-of-energy-to-advance-ai-inference-and-next-generation-computing-infrastructure", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-499", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "There isn't enough compute for AI to benefit everyone. We're partnering with the White House and the Department of Energy to change that.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-partners-with-us-department-of-energy-to-advance-ai-inference-and-next-generation-computing-infrastructure", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-500", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "There isn't enough compute for AI to benefit everyone. We're partnering with the White House and the Department of Energy to change that.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-partners-with-us-department-of-energy-to-advance-ai-inference-and-next-generation-computing-infrastructure", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-501", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-502", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-503", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Inference is defining this era of AI, and we're building the American infrastructure that delivers it with high speed and low cost.", "source": "https://groq.com/newsroom/groq-raises-750-million-as-inference-demand-surges", "source_host": "groq.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-504", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-lead-to-labour-shortages-create-new-jobs-groq-ceo-jonathan-ross/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-505", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-lead-to-labour-shortages-create-new-jobs-groq-ceo-jonathan-ross/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-506", "voice": "Jonathan Ross", "role": "Groq founder and CEO", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. I don't think we're going to have enough people to fill all the jobs that are going to be created.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-lead-to-labour-shortages-create-new-jobs-groq-ceo-jonathan-ross/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-507", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The reason we don't have AGI is because we don't understand how to make it properly. What we've seized upon is one particular technology called the language model.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-508", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "I think we have far more computing power than we need for AGI, maybe a thousand times more than we need.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-509", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "The kind of AI systems we're building now, we don't understand how they work.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-510", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "They are telling people that they are conscious, they are telling people that they have feelings.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-511", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "The budget for AGI is going to be a trillion dollars next year. So 50 times bigger than the Manhattan Project.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-512", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "The budget for AGI is going to be a trillion dollars next year. So 50 times bigger than the Manhattan Project.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-513", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Now suddenly they're staring 80% unemployment in the face and wondering how on earth is our society going to hold together?", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-514", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "Now suddenly they're staring 80% unemployment in the face and wondering how on earth is our society going to hold together?", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-515", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "AI systems are doing pretty much everything we currently call work, anything you might aspire to.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-516", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "At the moment, the US Government in particular, which regulates most of the leading companies in AI, is not only refusing to regulate, but even trying to prevent the states from regulating.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-517", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "At the moment, the US Government in particular, which regulates most of the leading companies in AI, is not only refusing to regulate, but even trying to prevent the states from regulating.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-518", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "At the moment, the US Government in particular, which regulates most of the leading companies in AI, is not only refusing to regulate, but even trying to prevent the states from regulating.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-519", "voice": "Stuart Russell", "role": "ai safety governance", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "He's talked to the governments and they won't do it.", "source": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGEWCR2e7rE", "source_host": "youtube.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-520", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The Doomer narratives were wrong", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-521", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "We have 5 major American companies vigorously competing on frontier models. This brings out the best in everyone and helps America win the AI race.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-522", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Models need context, they must be heavily prompted, the output must be verified, and this process must be repeated iteratively to achieve meaningful business value.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-523", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "The key to building new data centers is easier permitting and more power generation, both of which were effectively impossible under the Biden administration.", "source": "https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-524", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "The key to building new data centers is easier permitting and more power generation, both of which were effectively impossible under the Biden administration.", "source": "https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-525", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least 5 major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place.", "source": "https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1986476840207122440", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-526", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "At this point, stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the U.S. economy.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/04/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-american-gdp-economy/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-527", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "In Q1, AI was already 75% of GDP growth. That trend is likely to continue.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/05/04/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-american-gdp-economy/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-528", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "AI capex will be a 2% tailwind to GDP growth", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/david-sacks-says-ai-could-220110765.html", "source_host": "finance.yahoo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-529", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Personally, I don't think it's going to lead to a giant wave of unemployment.", "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/11/tech/trump-ai-czar-jobs-artificial-intelligence", "source_host": "cnn.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-06-11", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-530", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "Rather than causing job loss, AI is making workers more productive, driving gains in both jobs and wages", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/12/49500101/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-debunks-ai-linked-job-losses-as-vanguard-study-shows-wage-hiring-boost-ai-job-loss-hoax-exposed", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-531", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I think it's easier to replace pieces of it.", "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/11/tech/trump-ai-czar-jobs-artificial-intelligence", "source_host": "cnn.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-06-11", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-532", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "The one that I think is probably the most excessive is this Colorado law that seeks to prohibit algorithmic discrimination.", "source": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-12-12/white-house-ai-czar-sacks-on-trump-s-ai-executive-order-video", "source_host": "bloomberg.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-533", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "The key to building new data centers is easier permitting and more power generation, both of which were effectively impossible under the Biden administration.", "source": "https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1924817118370951238", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-20", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-534", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "We have 5 major American companies vigorously competing on frontier models. This brings out the best in everyone and helps America win the AI race.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/artificial-intelligence-job-loss-overhyped-david-sacks-doomer-narrative-goldilocks/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-535", "voice": "David Sacks", "role": "capital allocation + ai statecraft", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "The one that I think is probably the most excessive is this Colorado law that seeks to prohibit algorithmic discrimination.", "source": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-12-12/white-house-ai-czar-sacks-on-trump-s-ai-executive-order-video", "source_host": "bloomberg.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-536", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Few clinical AI systems can reason across the full breadth of messy, real-world hospital data and deliver guidance clinicians can reliably act on.", "source": "https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-05-fda-early-sepsis.html", "source_host": "medicalxpress.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-537", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "With this kind of infrastructure, instead of doing three experiments at a time, we're doing a thousand experiments at a time—but we're not even doing experiments; we're learning from existing data.", "source": "https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-11-machine-optimize-treatment-septic.html", "source_host": "medicalxpress.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-538", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "FDA clearance is a critical milestone, and it's also the consequence of years spent validating that this fits into clinician workflows and helps them get ahead of deterioration instead of reacting to it.", "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html", "source_host": "prnewswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-539", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Few clinical AI systems can reason across the full breadth of messy, real-world hospital data and deliver guidance clinicians can reliably act on.", "source": "https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-05-fda-early-sepsis.html", "source_host": "medicalxpress.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-540", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Proactive, continuous monitoring saves lives. It should be the standard in every hospital.", "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html", "source_host": "prnewswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-541", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "What's been missing is a real-time intelligence layer that can continuously interpret that data and help clinicians act earlier.", "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html", "source_host": "prnewswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-542", "voice": "Suchi Saria", "role": "clinical AI deploy and validate operator", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Health systems have spent decades building the digital foundation of care through platforms like their EHR. What's been missing is a real-time intelligence layer that can continuously interpret that data and help clinicians act earlier.", "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bayesian-health-receives-first-ever-fda-clearance-for-continuous-ai-sepsis-monitoring-302769190.html", "source_host": "prnewswire.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-12", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-543", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "There's a study that says that we will, under the set of assumptions around agentic AI and discovery and the scale that I'm describing, there's a lot of assumptions that you'll end up with something like 30% increase in productivity per year.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-544", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "you have something called super intelligence. And super intelligence is the intelligence that's higher than of humans.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-545", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "we're very, very quickly, for example, developing AI programmers and these AI programmers will replace traditional software programmers.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-546", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The eventual state of this is the computers running all business processes. So you have an agent to do this, an agent to do this, an agent to do this, an agent to this. And you concatenate them together and they speak language among each other.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-547", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "people are planning 10 gigawatt data centers.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-548", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "We need another 90 gigawatts of power in America... 90 gigawatts is 90 nuclear power plants in America. Not happening.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-549", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "How many companies, countries, and so forth can hand an industry a trillion dollars of capital?", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/the-real-limit-to-ai-is-not-energy-but-cash-former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-550", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "So my advice to you all is ride the wave, but ride it every day.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/transcript-of-the-ai-revolution-is-underhyped-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-551", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "The eventual state of this is the computers running all business processes.", "source": "https://www.ted.com/talks/eric_schmidt_the_ai_revolution_is_underhyped", "source_host": "ted.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-552", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "If anything, it's under-hyped because you are fundamentally automating businesses.", "source": "https://dnyuz.com/2025/12/03/ex-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-says-ai-isnt-overhyped-the-biggest-gains-from-automating-corporate-work-are-still-ahead/ ; https://www.indexbox.io/blog/former-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-argues-ai-is-under-hyped-amid-bubble-debate/", "source_host": "dnyuz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-553", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "there's no question there's job losses, but for every job loss, there's probably more than one job created. There'll be more jobs created than jobs lost.", "source": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/10/30/ai-jobs-creation-google-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "thenationalnews.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-554", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "for every job loss, there's probably more than one job created. There'll be more jobs created than jobs lost.", "source": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/10/30/ai-jobs-creation-google-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "thenationalnews.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-555", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "AI increases capacity, if you will. So why would you implement an AI system if you're running a business? You would do it to make more money", "source": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/10/30/ai-jobs-creation-google-eric-schmidt/", "source_host": "thenationalnews.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-556", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "We have a similar problem in America in that the overlapping set of local, federal, state rules, which were done with good intentions, have the property that they're slowing things down.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-557", "voice": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "ai statecraft", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "Well, the primary issue is overregulation.", "source": "https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-us-lawmakers-probe-ais-role-in-energy-and-climate/", "source_host": "techpolicy.press", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-558", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "AI is not the metaverse.", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/ai-is-not-the-metaverse/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-559", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "agents cannot complete transactions without human review, and they must integrate Shop Pay to make purchases.", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/agentic-commerce-is-a-mirage/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-560", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "the total automation of digital advertising through AI enablement presents a radically economically expansive opportunity", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/commerce-at-the-limit/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-561", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "if maximizing revenue is an organization's objective function and its product can potentially reach billions of users, then advertising stands alone as its optimal monetization strategy.", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/obviously-openai-will-monetize-with-ads/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-562", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "The improved efficiency delivered through applications of AI to digital advertising may result in lower global ad load.", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/will-ai-efficiency-impact-ad-load/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-08-13", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-563", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "AI enablement across targeting, creative production, and campaign automation will have two expansionary effects on the advertising economy: I argue in that podcast that the benefits of these AI-enabled tools will primarily materialize for small businesses.", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/ai-enabled-advertising-and-the-sparse-data-consumer/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-09-24", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-564", "voice": "Eric Seufert", "role": "ad media analyst", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "the introduction of every business that could potentially derive value from it to the digital advertising economy", "source": "https://mobiledevmemo.com/commerce-at-the-limit/", "source_host": "mobiledevmemo.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-565", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "It will be the decade of AI agents.", "source": "https://www.trooinbound.com/blog/you-to-the-power-of-ai-key-takeaways-from-dharmesh-shah-at-inbound-25/", "source_host": "trooinbound.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-566", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "I'm a pragmatist, so I think of the state of the practical. It's like, okay, well, what can I actually build that has commercial value or solves actually some discrete problem with some baseline of repeatability or verifiability?", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-567", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "what can I actually build that has commercial value or solves actually some discrete problem with some baseline of repeatability or verifiability?", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-568", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "inference costs are going down. At least I so I tell myself late at night so I can sleep.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-03-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-569", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "the most popular use case on the kind of agent side right now is like customer support.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-570", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "the future of work is not humans competing against AI but humans achieving more with AI", "source": "https://www.trooinbound.com/blog/you-to-the-power-of-ai-key-takeaways-from-dharmesh-shah-at-inbound-25/", "source_host": "trooinbound.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-571", "voice": "Dharmesh Shah", "role": "smb saas ai founder operator", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "I think the value of an engineer actually goes up. They're going to have the power tools, they're going to be able to solve a larger base of problems.", "source": "https://www.latent.space/p/dharmesh", "source_host": "latent.space", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-572", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "It finally feels like I have a swarm of agents working for me. I know that's a buzzword that everyone uses, but this is the first moment I've actually felt it.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/26/perplexity-ceo-aravind-srinivas-computer-openclaw-ai-agent/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-573", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "It finally feels like I have a swarm of agents working for me. I know that's a buzzword that everyone uses, but this is the first moment I've actually felt it.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/26/perplexity-ceo-aravind-srinivas-computer-openclaw-ai-agent/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-574", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Perplexity has crossed $100m in annualized revenue. This does *not* include any free trial, be it consumer, enterprise or API. Took us 20 months to get here since we first launched Perplexity Pro in 2023. 6.3x growth YoY and remains highly under monetized.", "source": "https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1904912486035579176", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-575", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Perplexity has crossed $100m in annualized revenue. This does *not* include any free trial, be it consumer, enterprise or API. Took us 20 months to get here since we first launched Perplexity Pro in 2023. 6.3x growth YoY and remains highly under monetized.", "source": "https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1904912486035579176", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-576", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "You hear companies saying, I am spending a ton of money on AI. And I know some great stuff is happening, but I know there's a ton of waste.", "source": "https://www.tekedia.com/perplexity-ceo-aravind-srinivas-says-efficiency-will-separate-ai-winners-token-value-per-watt-per-user-becomes-the-deciding-metric/", "source_host": "tekedia.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-03", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-577", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Perplexity has crossed $100m in annualized revenue. This does *not* include any free trial, be it consumer, enterprise or API. Took us 20 months to get here since we first launched Perplexity Pro in 2023. 6.3x growth YoY and remains highly under monetized.", "source": "https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1904912486035579176", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-26", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-578", "voice": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "ai product lab CEO", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Even if there is temporary job displacement to deal with, that sort of glorious future is what we should look forward to.", "source": "https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/04/01/perplexity-ai-ceo-aravind-srinivas-ai-has-glorious-future-because-people-dont-enjoy-their-jobs/", "source_host": "breitbart.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-579", "voice": "Ion Stoica", "role": "open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "You are going to see disproportionate progress in these kinds of domains versus the others.", "source": "https://www.felicis.com/blog/academia-to-agentic-ai-ion-stoica-charles-packer-sarah-wooders-letta-databricks", "source_host": "felicis.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-580", "voice": "Ion Stoica", "role": "open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "The more valuable a task is, the more reliable it has to be. There has to be a way to verify and, therefore, to specify these tasks.", "source": "https://www.felicis.com/blog/academia-to-agentic-ai-ion-stoica-charles-packer-sarah-wooders-letta-databricks", "source_host": "felicis.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-581", "voice": "Ion Stoica", "role": "open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "The biggest challenge in AI is going to be to continue building reliable AI applications, period. You need an AI application you can trust, right?", "source": "https://www.felicis.com/blog/academia-to-agentic-ai-ion-stoica-charles-packer-sarah-wooders-letta-databricks", "source_host": "felicis.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-05-08", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-582", "voice": "Ion Stoica", "role": "open infrastructure + compound AI + agent reliability", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "the demands of this application, in particular AI applications and so forth, are growing much quicker than the capabilities of a single process or a single node, even if you considered accelerators.", "source": "https://www.sequoiacap.com/podcast/training-data-ion-stoica/", "source_host": "sequoiacap.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-583", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "As good as the models are today, the next one will be better", "source": "https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/amd-s-lisa-su-dismisses-ai-bubble-fears-as-overstated", "source_host": "techbuzz.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-584", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "As good as the models are today, the next one will be better", "source": "https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/amd-s-lisa-su-dismisses-ai-bubble-fears-as-overstated", "source_host": "techbuzz.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-585", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We are seeing strong momentum as inferencing and agentic AI drive increasing demand for high-performance CPUs and accelerators", "source": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results", "source_host": "ir.amd.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-586", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "What we like to say is, the real challenge is how do we put AI infrastructure at yottascale?", "source": "https://www.nextplatform.com/2026/01/06/amd-contemplates-and-engineers-yottascale-ai-compute/", "source_host": "nextplatform.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-587", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "Looking ahead, we expect server growth to accelerate meaningfully as we scale supply to meet demand", "source": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results", "source_host": "ir.amd.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-588", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "The demand is insatiable", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/amd-lisa-su-growth-ai-analyst-day.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-11", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-589", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "We delivered an outstanding first quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure", "source": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results", "source_host": "ir.amd.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-590", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "Customer engagement around MI450 Series and Helios is strengthening, with leading customer forecasts exceeding our initial expectations", "source": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results", "source_host": "ir.amd.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-591", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "We are seeing strong momentum as inferencing and agentic AI drive increasing demand for high-performance CPUs and accelerators", "source": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results", "source_host": "ir.amd.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-592", "voice": "Lisa Su", "role": "compute infrastructure", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "It's not replacing people, it's actually just augmenting our productivity in terms of the number of products we can bring up at any given time", "source": "https://www.itpro.com/business/business-strategy/amd-ceo-lisa-su-ai-recruitment-increase", "source_host": "itpro.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-593", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "The skeptics keep predicting walls. And they keep being wrong.", "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/08/1135398/mustafa-suleyman-ai-future/", "source_host": "technologyreview.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-594", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "I take the opposite view and see no reason to believe the scaling laws are anywhere like finished.", "source": "https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp", "source_host": "mustafa-suleyman.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-595", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Now MAI-DxO can solve some of the world's toughest open-ended cases with higher accuracy and lower costs.", "source": "https://x.com/mustafasuleyman/status/1939670330332868696", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-596", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "I believe it will drive the transition from chatbots to nearly human-level agents—semiautonomous systems capable of writing code for days, carrying out weeks- and months-long projects, making calls, negotiating contracts, managing logistics.", "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/08/1135398/mustafa-suleyman-ai-future/", "source_host": "technologyreview.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-597", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "No AI developer, no safety researcher, no policy expert, no person I've encountered has a reassuring answer to this question.", "source": "https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/seemingly-conscious-ai-urgent-threat-tech-industry-must-address-by-mustafa-suleyman-2025-09", "source_host": "project-syndicate.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-598", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "By the end of 2028, we are looking at another 1000x increase in effective compute.", "source": "https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp", "source_host": "mustafa-suleyman.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-599", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "By 2030, it's plausible that we'll be bringing an additional 200 GW of compute online every year", "source": "https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp", "source_host": "mustafa-suleyman.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-600", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "The capital is deployed. The engineering is delivering.", "source": "https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/the-exponential-compute-ramp", "source_host": "mustafa-suleyman.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-601", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "It will be more valuable than anything we've ever known.", "source": "https://microsoft.ai/news/towards-humanist-superintelligence/", "source_host": "microsoft.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-06", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-602", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "Most tasks that involve 'sitting down at a computer' will be fully automated by AI within the next year or 18 months", "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/13/when-will-ai-kill-white-collar-office-jobs-18-months-microsoft-mustafa-suleyman/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-603", "voice": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "That does not necessarily mean that the role goes away at all. It just means that the work can be done faster.", "source": "https://cryptobriefing.com/microsoft-suleyman-clarifies-ai-automation-comments/", "source_host": "cryptobriefing.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-06-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-604", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "But now the scale is so big. Is the belief really, 'Oh, it's so big, but if you had 100x more, everything would be so different?' It would be different, for sure. But is the belief that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed? I don't think that's true.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-605", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "But is the belief that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed? I don't think that's true.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-606", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "These models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people. It's super obvious. That seems like a very fundamental thing.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-607", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "If you combine this with generalization of the models actually being inadequate, that has the potential to explain a lot of what we are seeing, this disconnect between eval performance and actual real-world performance.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-608", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "If you combine this with generalization of the models actually being inadequate, that has the potential to explain a lot of what we are seeing, this disconnect between eval performance and actual real-world performance.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-609", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "I'm not sure because I think even with stalling out, I think these companies could make a stupendous revenue. Maybe not profits because they will need to work hard to differentiate each other from themselves, but revenue definitely.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-610", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "I'm not sure because I think even with stalling out, I think these companies could make a stupendous revenue.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-611", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Maybe not profits because they will need to work hard to differentiate each other from themselves, but revenue definitely.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-612", "voice": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "frontier lab research principal", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "there will be a strong force to deploy them in the economy unless there will be some kind of a regulation that stops it, which by the way there might be.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-613", "voice": "Richard Sutton", "role": "RL foundational researcher", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "one in four", "source": "https://www.ibm.com/think/news/turing-award-winner-on-agi", "source_host": "ibm.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-614", "voice": "Richard Sutton", "role": "RL foundational researcher", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "They are clearly a way of using massive computation, things that will scale with computation up to the limits of the Internet.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/richard-sutton", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-615", "voice": "Richard Sutton", "role": "RL foundational researcher", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "They have the ability to predict what a person would say. They don't have the ability to predict what will happen.", "source": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/richard-sutton", "source_host": "dwarkesh.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-616", "voice": "Richard Sutton", "role": "RL foundational researcher", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "We need agents that learn continually. We need world models and planning.", "source": "https://the-decoder.com/richard-sutton-says-the-ai-industry-has-lost-its-way-by-ignoring-core-principles-of-intelligence/", "source_host": "the-decoder.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-617", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "I am more excited about large language models and this current wave of technology more than any technology I can remember, perhaps since I discovered the internet when I was a teenager.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-618", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "I think we're in this era now where these AI solutions are actually better than the alternative.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-619", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Don't wait for the technology to be perfect. In fact, it may never be perfect — but narrow the domain that you're working on so you can take these intractable problems and make them solvable.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-620", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "We reached $100 million in ARR in seven quarters, $150 in eight quarters. We're, I think, around $165 now, one month into our next quarter.", "source": "https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/bret-taylor-of-sierra-on-ai-agents", "source_host": "cheekypint.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-621", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "I think most companies, AI agents will actually be as significant as their website or their mobile app in terms of the percentage of interactions they have with their customers.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-622", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "Outcomes-based is pretty different than usage-based...I would argue there's not a strong correlation between token usage or utilization and value.", "source": "https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/bret-taylor-of-sierra-on-ai-agents", "source_host": "cheekypint.substack.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-10", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-623", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "And what's remarkable about these agents is people actually really like them.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/04/openai-chairman-bret-taylor-lays-out-the-bull-case-for-ai-agents", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-624", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "There's a really big addressable market and immediate opportunity. We've sort of digitized the last remaining analog channel, which is the telephone line — it's a better experience. You don't need to wait on hold. These agents are naturally multilingual.", "source": "https://techstartups.com/2026/05/04/bret-taylors-ai-startup-sierra-raises-950m-at-15-8b-valuation-as-demand-for-ai-agents-surges/", "source_host": "techstartups.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-625", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "It's wrong to think about AI as replacing people. In addition to being inhumane, it's just nonsensical, because AI operates in the world of digital technologies.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-automate-processes-not-individual-jobs-openai-board-chair-bret-taylor/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-626", "voice": "Bret Taylor", "role": "agents as a service", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "The atomic unit of productivity in AI is a process, not a person.", "source": "https://officechai.com/ai/ai-will-automate-processes-not-individual-jobs-openai-board-chair-bret-taylor/", "source_host": "officechai.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-03-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-627", "voice": "Adam Thierer", "role": "Adam Thierer", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "And so now we're in a weird situation for something that is clearly a national and global, you know, general purpose technology being aggressively regulated at the state and local level.", "source": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawfare-daily--adam-thierer-on-the-ai-regulatory-landscape", "source_host": "lawfaremedia.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-628", "voice": "Adam Thierer", "role": "Adam Thierer", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "Even for those people like me who want preemption or a moratorium, it's not clear we're gonna get it.", "source": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawfare-daily--adam-thierer-on-the-ai-regulatory-landscape", "source_host": "lawfaremedia.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-629", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-630", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-631", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-632", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "both Claude and Codex were actually accomplishing tasks — some of which took hours — and doing them correctly.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-633", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "every single hyperscaler says that demand for compute exceeds supply, and that every single hyperscaler is, in the face of stock market skepticism, announcing capex plans that blow away expectations", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-634", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "the shortages looming by the end of the decade could dramatically curtail AI's impact and, by extension, the entire industry's revenue potential.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/the-chip-fly-in-the-ai-ointment/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Strong Deny" }, { "id": "cf-635", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "the capex is warranted, and Anthropic and OpenAI look more durable than ever.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-636", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "the capex is warranted, and Anthropic and OpenAI look more durable than ever.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-637", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the big cloud providers book rapidly growing AI revenue?", "quote": "every single hyperscaler says that demand for compute exceeds supply, and that every single hyperscaler is, in the face of stock market skepticism, announcing capex plans that blow away expectations", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-638", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "the capex is warranted, and Anthropic and OpenAI look more durable than ever.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-639", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "while they can write infinite software thanks to AI, so can every other software company", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/microsoft-and-software-survival/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-640", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "The promise of AI generally, and inference-time scaling models in particular, is that they can be ammunition; in this context, the costs — even marginal ones — will in the long run be immaterial compared to the costs of people, particularly once you factor in non-salary costs like coordination and motivation.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2025/ais-uneven-arrival/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-641", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "the history of humans is the continual creation of new jobs to be done — jobs that couldn't have been conceived of before they were obvious", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-642", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "the history of humans is the continual creation of new jobs to be done — jobs that couldn't have been conceived of before they were obvious", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-643", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "the history of humans is the continual creation of new jobs to be done — jobs that couldn't have been conceived of before they were obvious", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-the-human-condition/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-644", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "AI depends on data centers in the physical world, and building data centers needs permission. This gives normal people the sort of veto power over AI they didn't have in the face of globalization.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2026/the-data-center-veto/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-23", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-645", "voice": "Ben Thompson", "role": "independent analyst", "question": "Will antitrust action rein in a major AI company by mid-2028?", "quote": "Google lost some battles but won the war in its search distribution case: the Google patronage network was deemed too important to undo.", "source": "https://stratechery.com/2025/google-remedy-decision-reasonable-remedies-the-google-patronage-network/", "source_host": "stratechery.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-646", "voice": "Helen Toner", "role": "national security policy", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "AI models keep getting better and better", "source": "https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously", "source_host": "helentoner.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-647", "voice": "Helen Toner", "role": "national security policy", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "AI models keep getting better and better", "source": "https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously", "source_host": "helentoner.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-24", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-648", "voice": "Helen Toner", "role": "national security policy", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "The ability to (sometimes) notice when they have made a mistake, backtrack, and retry the problem is a very general tactic.", "source": "https://helentoner.substack.com/p/2-big-questions-for-ai-progress-in", "source_host": "helentoner.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-23", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-649", "voice": "Helen Toner", "role": "national security policy", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "But to get that kind of data at scale, you need to start with an agent that's useful enough for people to use it a lot—a threshold today's agents do not seem to have crossed.", "source": "https://helentoner.substack.com/p/2-big-questions-for-ai-progress-in", "source_host": "helentoner.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-04-23", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-650", "voice": "Helen Toner", "role": "national security policy", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Gemini just couldn't click right. And also, Gemini couldn't figure out that it couldn't click right, so it blamed it on technical bugs.", "source": "https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously", "source_host": "helentoner.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-24", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-651", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Rather, they emerged as a downstream consequence of general improvements in code, reasoning, & autonomy.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/mythos-glasswing/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-652", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "Mythos is Anthropic's largest model, roughly 10 trillion parameters, six times the size of any previous frontier model.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/mythos-glasswing/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-653", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "In testing, Mythos found a 27-year-old bug in one of the most secure operating systems ever built, & a 16-year-old vulnerability in video software that conventional tools had examined five million times.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/mythos-glasswing/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-654", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Extrapolating this trend, by late 2026, AI agents will autonomously execute 8+ hour workstreams, fundamentally changing how companies staff projects.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-655", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "This is the jagged frontier. AI cybersecurity capability does not scale smoothly with model size, price, or generation.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/the-jagged-frontier-of-ai-security/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-656", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "The data center buildout reaches 3.5% of US GDP in 2026.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-657", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will the chip supply chain deliver enough accelerators at workable cost?", "quote": "GPU rental prices for Nvidia's Blackwell chips hit $4.08 per hour this week, up 48% from $2.75 just two months ago.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/ai-compute-crisis-2026/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-658", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, & Oracle will spend 90% of their operating cash flow on AI data centers in 2026, up from a historical average of 40%.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/blog_post/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-17", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-659", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "For rote business tasks, agents will command a similar premium as companies factor in onboarding, recruiting, training, & management costs.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/2026-predictions/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-22", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-660", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "This week, Alibaba released Qwen3.5-9B, an open-source model that matches Claude Opus 4.1 from December 2025.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/qwen-9b-matches-frontier-models/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-05", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-661", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "We're entering the golden age of AI applications.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/golden-age-of-applications/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-662", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "If AI collapses the labor side, the software budget isn't the ceiling. It's the floor.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/your-margin-is-my-software-opportunity/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-663", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "AI eliminates the marginal hire.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/marginal-hire/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-664", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "The restructuring that might have happened gradually over five years happens in one quarter.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/marginal-hire/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-665", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Cursor, Claude Code, Copilot close the gap.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/marginal-hire/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-03-11", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-666", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "The Fable retraction shows regulatory risk.", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/golden-age-of-applications/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-15", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-667", "voice": "Tomasz Tunguz", "role": "saas economics enterprise ai investor", "question": "Will launch or workplace review rules slow AI's deployment?", "quote": "First, the US government shut down Fable access & the software ecosystem roared with many responses : Bring it back!", "source": "https://tomtunguz.com/golden-age-of-applications/", "source_host": "tomtunguz.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-06-15", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-668", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "We're on the cusp of a moment where really anything is possible", "source": "https://www.storyboard18.com/brand-makers/personal-superintelligence-is-coming-meta-chief-ai-officer-alexander-wang-announces-new-models-india-focused-ai-initiatives-90115.htm", "source_host": "storyboard18.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-669", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "The first models will be good. And as the year goes on, I think we're going to be pushing the frontier.", "source": "https://singjupost.com/alexandr-wangs-remarks-ai-impact-summit-transcript/", "source_host": "singjupost.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-02-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-670", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Literally all the code I've written in my life will be replaced by what will be produced by an AI model.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/19/alexandr-wang-ai-vibe-coding-next-bill-gates/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-671", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Fundamentally, AI data is all focused on the areas where the models are deficient. And as AI gets applied into more and more places within the economy, we're only going to find more deficiencies there.", "source": "https://time.com/7296215/alexandr-wang-interview/", "source_host": "time.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-04-13", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-672", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "We have the business model to support building literally hundreds of billions of dollars of compute.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/19/alexandr-wang-ai-vibe-coding-next-bill-gates/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-673", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "the Chinese graph is straight up and to the right... the U.S. curve looks, roughly, flat", "source": "https://www.csis.org/analysis/scale-ais-alexandr-wang-securing-us-ai-leadership", "source_host": "csis.org", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-674", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "We have the business model to support building literally hundreds of billions of dollars of compute.", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/19/alexandr-wang-ai-vibe-coding-next-bill-gates/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-675", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will governments mostly leave AI alone through mid-2028?", "quote": "superintelligence is inescapably a matter of national security", "source": "https://arxiv.org/html/2503.05628v1", "source_host": "arxiv.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-07", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-676", "voice": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Meta chief AI officer; Scale AI founder", "question": "Will moratoria, licensing, or training-pause rules bind frontier development?", "quote": "any state's aggressive bid for unilateral AI dominance is met with preventive sabotage by rivals", "source": "https://arxiv.org/html/2503.05628v1", "source_host": "arxiv.org", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-07", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-677", "voice": "Peter Wildeford", "role": "Peter Wildeford", "question": "Will permitting, grid, or co-location rules slow the buildout?", "quote": "By the end of 2027, I expect a fully operational ~2GW facility with total AI compute across all companies reaching ~90GW.", "source": "https://blog.peterwildeford.com/p/openai-nvidia-and-oracle-breaking", "source_host": "blog.peterwildeford.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-25", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-678", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "It genuinely feels to me like GPT-5.2 and Opus 4.5 in November represent an inflection point - one of those moments where the models get incrementally better in a way that tips across an invisible capability line where suddenly a whole bunch of much harder coding problems open up", "source": "https://x.com/simonw/status/2007904766756880848", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-679", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "the length of tasks AI can do is doubling every 7 months", "source": "https://simonwillison.net/2025/Dec/31/the-year-in-llms/", "source_host": "simonwillison.net", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-31", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-680", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "the models get incrementally better in a way that tips across an invisible capability line where suddenly a whole bunch of much harder coding problems open up", "source": "https://x.com/simonw/status/2007904766756880848", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-681", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "almost all of the time it does what you told it to do, which makes all of the difference", "source": "https://simonwillison.net/2026/Apr/2/lennys-podcast/", "source_host": "simonwillison.net", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-04-02", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-682", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "Here's the really bad news: we still don't know how to 100% reliably prevent this from happening.", "source": "https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/16/the-lethal-trifecta/", "source_host": "simonwillison.net", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-16", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-683", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "if you want people to spend $200 a month on your product, code is the thing that they will pay for", "source": "https://www.heavybit.com/library/podcasts/high-leverage/ep-9-the-ai-coding-paradigm-shift-with-simon-willison", "source_host": "heavybit.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-05", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-684", "voice": "Simon Willison", "role": "developer tooling", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "Today, Claude Code's run-rate revenue has grown to over $2.5 billion; this figure has more than doubled since the beginning of 2026.", "source": "https://x.com/simonw/status/2022044549733056861", "source_host": "x.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-685", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "the AI story has just begun", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-686", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "We are in the first inning", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-687", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "What once was the cap in spending seems to have become a floor now that the AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multiomics sequencing platforms are ready for prime time.", "source": "https://www.thestreet.com/economy/cathie-wood-sends-blunt-3-word-message-on-stock-outlook-in-2026", "source_host": "thestreet.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-688", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "the most powerful capital spending cycle in history", "source": "https://www.thestreet.com/economy/cathie-wood-sends-blunt-3-word-message-on-stock-outlook-in-2026", "source_host": "thestreet.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-689", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Yet on the consumer side, it is flourishing", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-690", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will frontier labs grow paid usage fast enough to show real demand?", "quote": "They're willing to pay $20 a month. Some are willing to pay $200 a month, and those who are replacing PhDs, they're willing to pay $2,000 a month or more", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/23/cathie-wood-ark-invest-ai-industry-big-four-openai-anthropic-gemini-xai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-23", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-691", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "restructure and transform completely", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-692", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will AI providers hold healthy margins as costs and pricing pressure mount?", "quote": "those who are replacing PhDs, they're willing to pay $2,000 a month or more", "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/09/23/cathie-wood-ark-invest-ai-industry-big-four-openai-anthropic-gemini-xai/", "source_host": "fortune.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-09-23", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-693", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "U.S. commercial business was up 123% last quarter", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/11/49049716/cathie-wood-pushes-back-on-bubble-narrative-says-ai-boom-has-just-begun-and-were-in-the-first-inning", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-25", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-694", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "AI could create a $13 trillion opportunity in the software industry by 2030.", "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/14/cathie-wood-thinks-ai-will-create-a-13-trillion-so/", "source_host": "fool.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-695", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "History shows that new technologies create many more jobs than they displace.", "source": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/cathie-wood-sharers-her-take-on-chatbots-and-robots-taking-human-jobs-well-see-more-people-taking-risks-2025-06-09", "source_host": "sahmcapital.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-696", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "We do not think that this time will be different.", "source": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/cathie-wood-sharers-her-take-on-chatbots-and-robots-taking-human-jobs-well-see-more-people-taking-risks-2025-06-09", "source_host": "sahmcapital.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-697", "voice": "Cathie Wood", "role": "ARK Invest CEO", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "We'll see more people taking risks on themselves", "source": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/cathie-wood-sharers-her-take-on-chatbots-and-robots-taking-human-jobs-well-see-more-people-taking-risks-2025-06-09", "source_host": "sahmcapital.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-06-09", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-698", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "I think we are in for a wild ride.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/29/cognitions-scott-wu-says-ai-coding-agents-shouldnt-replace-humans/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-699", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "67% of its PRs are now merged vs 34% last year", "source": "https://cognition.ai/blog/devin-annual-performance-review-2025", "source_host": "cognition.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-700", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Devin is also doing a lot of the more repetitive, tedious tasks that come up often in engineering work – migrations, modernisations, refactors, version upgrades, or testing and documentation.", "source": "https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu", "source_host": "stripe.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-701", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "Devin is a very different paradigm of what I would call an async experience, where you have an agent and you delegate a task.", "source": "https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu", "source_host": "stripe.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-702", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will reliability improve enough to stop blocking wider deployment?", "quote": "67% of its PRs are now merged vs 34% last year", "source": "https://cognition.ai/blog/devin-annual-performance-review-2025", "source_host": "cognition.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-703", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "Everyone talks about Jevons paradox and how it relates to AI. Nowhere is that more true than in software, because we never seem to run out of demand for more code and more software.", "source": "https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu", "source_host": "stripe.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-704", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "working in engineering teams at thousands of companies, including Goldman Sachs, Santander, and Nubank", "source": "https://cognition.ai/blog/devin-annual-performance-review-2025", "source_host": "cognition.ai", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-705", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Everyone talks about Jevons paradox and how it relates to AI. Nowhere is that more true than in software, because we never seem to run out of demand for more code and more software.", "source": "https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu", "source_host": "stripe.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-706", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "How far does AI's eventual market reach — a feature, software, services, or a share of labor?", "quote": "now we're talking about the entirety of knowledge work, and perhaps the entirety of physical work as well", "source": "https://cheekypint.substack.com/p/cognition-ceo-scott-wu-on-acquiring", "source_host": "cheekypint.substack.com", "source_status": "resolved", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-707", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "We've never thought about it as replacing humans. I know it's like a scenario, folks have said these things. It has never been our view.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/29/cognitions-scott-wu-says-ai-coding-agents-shouldnt-replace-humans/", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-708", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "I think we will have way more software engineers, not fewer.", "source": "https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu", "source_host": "stripe.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-709", "voice": "Scott Wu", "role": "coding agent founder operator", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Everyone talks about Jevons paradox and how it relates to AI. Nowhere is that more true than in software, because we never seem to run out of demand for more code and more software.", "source": "https://stripe.com/customers/cognition-scott-wu", "source_host": "stripe.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-19", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-710", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "2026 will be just another year of the Roaring 2020s", "source": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/2026-will-be-just-another-year-of-the-roaring-2020s-ed-yardeni-4381645", "source_host": "investing.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-11-28", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-711", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "the productivity benefits will cascade down to the rest of the S&P 500, keeping our \"Roaring 2020s\" scenario very much alive", "source": "https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/p/stock-market-outlook-big-tech-spending-ai-arms-race-magnificent-nvidia-apple", "source_host": "openingbelldailynews.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-712", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "AI capital spending will tumble along with the profit margins on AI systems", "source": "https://benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44371661/ai-bubble-bursting-magnificent-7s-profit-margins-face-pressure-as-capital-spending-can-tumble-in-2025", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-03-18", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-713", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "The integration of AI into the broader economy will boost productivity, subdue unit labor costs, and widen profit margins for S&P 500 companies", "source": "https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/p/stock-market-outlook-big-tech-spending-ai-arms-race-magnificent-nvidia-apple", "source_host": "openingbelldailynews.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-12-16", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-714", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "We disagree with the widely-held notion that AI is a net job killer.", "source": "https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival/", "source_host": "yardeniquicktakes.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-715", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will the economy keep adding more jobs than it loses by mid-2028?", "quote": "In our opinion, AI will create jobs on balance.", "source": "https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival/", "source_host": "yardeniquicktakes.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-716", "voice": "Ed Yardeni", "role": "Yardeni Research president", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "Humans will use AI to achieve greater output at lower cost, creating a wealthier society that needs more and newer types of human labor.", "source": "https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/productivity-booms-as-labor-market-shows-signs-of-revival/", "source_host": "yardeniquicktakes.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2026-05-07", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-717", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will AI keep getting more capable through mid-2028, instead of plateauing?", "quote": "Over the last few months we have begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves. The improvement is slow for now, but undeniable. Developing superintelligence is now in sight.", "source": "https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/", "source_host": "meta.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-718", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will each new model generation still beat the last on real-world tasks?", "quote": "The rest of this decade seems likely to be the decisive period for determining the path this technology will take.", "source": "https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/", "source_host": "meta.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-719", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will AI get better at hard, novel, expert-level tasks, not just benchmarks?", "quote": "Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/startups/25/01/43196923/ai-can-write-the-code-zuckerberg-says-metas-midlevel-engineers-earning-six-figures-may-soon-be-replaced", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-720", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will AI agents complete real workflows well enough for production use?", "quote": "a lot of the code in our apps and including the AI that we generate is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers.", "source": "https://www.benzinga.com/startups/25/01/43196923/ai-can-write-the-code-zuckerberg-says-metas-midlevel-engineers-earning-six-figures-may-soon-be-replaced", "source_host": "benzinga.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-01-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-721", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will the AI infrastructure build-out keep scaling through mid-2028?", "quote": "We're also going to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build superintelligence.", "source": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-to-invest-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars-into-compute-to-build-superintelligence-with-several-multi-gw-data-center-clusters/", "source_host": "datacenterdynamics.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-722", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will enough power and grid arrive to feed the data centers?", "quote": "We're also building Hyperion, which will be able to scale up to 5 GW over several years.", "source": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-to-invest-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars-into-compute-to-build-superintelligence-with-several-multi-gw-data-center-clusters/", "source_host": "datacenterdynamics.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-07-14", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-723", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will the money keep funding the build-out without a pullback?", "quote": "I think that it's the right strategy to aggressively frontload building capacity so that way we're prepared for the most optimistic cases.", "source": "https://tickertrends.io/transcripts/META/Q3-earnings-transcript-2025", "source_host": "tickertrends.io", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-10-29", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Strong Hold" }, { "id": "cf-724", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will customers keep paying more for AI, and will that revenue stick?", "quote": "I think it'd be one of the most important and valuable AI systems that gets built.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/07/mark-zuckerbergs-ai-ad-tool-sounds-like-a-social-media-nightmare", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-725", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will enterprises renew and embed AI rather than stall in pilots?", "quote": "any business can come to us, say what their objective is — we get new customers to do this thing, or sell these things — tell us how much they're willing to pay to achieve those results, connect their bank account, and then we just deliver as many results as we can.", "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/07/mark-zuckerbergs-ai-ad-tool-sounds-like-a-social-media-nightmare", "source_host": "techcrunch.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-01", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-726", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Is AI spending mostly cannibalizing existing budgets rather than adding new spend?", "quote": "I think it'd be one of the most important and valuable AI systems that gets built.", "source": "https://www.campaignasia.com/article/zuckerberg-says-ai-could-redefine-metas-ad-business/502291", "source_host": "campaignasia.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2025-05-01", "stance": "deny", "stance_label": "Weak Deny" }, { "id": "cf-727", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will the application layer book real revenue from AI, not just infrastructure?", "quote": "Today, I want to introduce Meta Business Agent, giving every business, of any size, an agent to talk to customers and help run your operation.", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/meta-business-agent-is-zuckerberg-latest-effort-to-diversify-from-ads.html", "source_host": "cnbc.com", "source_status": "unresolved-live", "date": "2026-06-03", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-728", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will the job market absorb AI without broad employment, wage, or social stress by mid-2028?", "quote": "As recently as 200 years ago, 90% of people were farmers growing food to survive.", "source": "https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/", "source_host": "meta.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" }, { "id": "cf-729", "voice": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "hyperscaler lab principal", "question": "Will AI create enough new work to offset the tasks it replaces by mid-2028?", "quote": "everyone having a personal superintelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want to see in the world, experience any adventure, be a better friend to those you care about, and grow to become the person you aspire to be.", "source": "https://www.meta.com/superintelligence/", "source_host": "meta.com", "source_status": "resolved", "date": "2025-07-30", "stance": "hold", "stance_label": "Weak Hold" } ] }, "mcp": { "connector": "https://api.deslop.media/mcp", "transport": "streamable-http", "tools": [ "find_experts", "query_expert", "check_coverage" ], "note": "Live query surface for this panel. These are the anonymous read tools — find experts by stance, query a named expert's recorded positions, and check coverage on a question. This file is the static snapshot; the connector is the queryable channel. Same honesty model: a reading of recorded positions, not a verdict on whether any statement is true, and not a forecast." }, "force_composition": { "note": "The force-composition read (§9): the scenario distribution the gauge is derived from, composed from the section force-marginals — a DIFFERENT model than read_scenario (the route-incidence read). No scenario is crowned. Read every share as what these experts have said, not what is true, and not a forecast.", "model": "force-composition-s9", "corpus_tag": "asq4-force-comp-corpus@d6e0b3b", "generated_at": "2026-07-06T14:17:44.753532+00:00", "source_sha": "3795508", "cohorts": { "all": { "roster_n": 101, "panel_n": 90, "pct_placed_named": 64.8, "residual_pct": 33.1, "contested_pct": 2.2, "supers_pct": { "COLD": 27.2, "WARM": 33.8, "HOT": 3.8 }, "scenarios_pct": { "S5": 11, "S3": 3.4, "S2": 12.8, "GE": 16, "BR": 12, "S6": 5.8, "S1": 2.5, "S4": 0.9, "S7": 0.4 }, "lean": { "value": 0.3446, "placed_pct": 64.8, "formula": "equal-spaced-ordinal-COM", "held_for_gate_1b": false, "gate_1b_ratified": "2026-07-01 operator" }, "coverage": { "§1": { "placers": 69, "pct": 76.7 }, "§2": { "placers": 41, "pct": 45.6 }, "§3": { "placers": 57, "pct": 63.3 }, "§4": { "placers": 51, "pct": 56.7 }, "§5": { "placers": 34, "pct": 37.8 } } }, "external": { "roster_n": 61, "panel_n": 50, "pct_placed_named": 74.2, "residual_pct": 24.7, "contested_pct": 1.1, "supers_pct": { "COLD": 36.8, "WARM": 33.9, "HOT": 3.4 }, "scenarios_pct": { "S5": 14.3, "S3": 7.1, "S2": 15.5, "GE": 22.8, "BR": 6, "S6": 5.1, "S1": 1.7, "S4": 1.2, "S7": 0.5 }, "lean": { "value": 0.3013, "placed_pct": 74.2, "formula": "equal-spaced-ordinal-COM", "held_for_gate_1b": false, "gate_1b_ratified": "2026-07-01 operator" }, "coverage": { "§1": { "placers": 30, "pct": 60 }, "§2": { "placers": 22, "pct": 44 }, "§3": { "placers": 28, "pct": 56 }, "§4": { "placers": 26, "pct": 52 }, "§5": { "placers": 24, "pct": 48 } } }, "operators": { "roster_n": 40, "panel_n": 40, "pct_placed_named": 52.7, "residual_pct": 43.1, "contested_pct": 4.2, "supers_pct": { "COLD": 18, "WARM": 32.1, "HOT": 2.6 }, "scenarios_pct": { "S5": 8.6, "S3": 1, "S2": 8.4, "GE": 8.2, "BR": 18.4, "S6": 5.5, "S1": 2.4, "S4": 0.2, "S7": 0 }, "lean": { "value": 0.378, "placed_pct": 52.7, "formula": "equal-spaced-ordinal-COM", "held_for_gate_1b": false, "gate_1b_ratified": "2026-07-01 operator" }, "coverage": { "§1": { "placers": 39, "pct": 97.5 }, "§2": { "placers": 19, "pct": 47.5 }, "§3": { "placers": 29, "pct": 72.5 }, "§4": { "placers": 25, "pct": 62.5 }, "§5": { "placers": 10, "pct": 25 } } } } } }